Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7028534bfb076b68629b57aa51a7ed8630f3b19453405bf053d37b15f54d3e3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $161,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $157,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 36c | 24,414$8,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,524.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 32c | 19,536$6,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,217.76 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 33c | 12,401$4,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,282.98 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 35c | 12,249$4,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,957.53 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 38c | 11,059$4,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,825.05 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 36c | 8,467$3,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,418.91 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 32c | 4,877$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,309.42 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…df41backed No | 64c | 4,559$2,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,917.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 64c | 4,251$2,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,711.02 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04ea…d556backed Yes | 28c | 3,810$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,746.58 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 69c | 3,671$2,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,516.28 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 35c | 3,400$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,202.5 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 39c | 2,604$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,597.55 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 36c | 2,310$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,487.86 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes | 34c | 1,900$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 1,884$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.52 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 1,816$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.66 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…c149backed Yes | 37c | 1,500$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +208.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 17c | 1,410$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 9cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x401a…d730backed No | 71c | 1,399$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e2…b98cbacked Yes | 37c | 1,395$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…aa22backed Yes | 79c | 1,258$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.39 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +74%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…c6afbacked Yes | 39c | 1,084$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 37c | 1,047$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.77 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,026$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 40c | 899$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.35 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 731.94$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.93 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4a…104fbacked Yes | 38c | 703.48$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked No | 63c | 692.84$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.14 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc418…1352backed No | 65c | 600$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed No | 66c | 597.93$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.64 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 33c | 515.22$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.18 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb525…705bbacked Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 67c | 408.63$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.07 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa940…db38backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 38c | 394$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 28c | 330.27$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…1b1dbacked No | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 34c | 294.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.79 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 24c | 291.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.97 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 37c | 285$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.55 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x086d…fe29backed No | 65c | 253$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 250$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.82 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 78c | 230$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.8 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes | 30c | 220.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Yes | 36c | 215$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b2…bfd6backed Yes | 47c | 205.95$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bf…15b2backed Yes | 42c | 155$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…7f5cbacked Yes | 37c | 153$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f3…e00dbacked No | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6547…8043backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf650…1c51backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…b79abacked No | 60c | 131$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 38c | 128.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 29c | 125$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 36c | 119$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 43c | 116.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 68c | 103$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1492…97dabacked No | 61c | 100.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb805…148ebacked Yes | 40c | 100.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…5bc5backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +1,104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…7387backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc39a…2214backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…6ed3backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e34…1610backed No | 63c | 96.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0a…db49backed No | 67c | 90$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd374…5544backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 64c | 77.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcefc…a993backed No | 63c | 77.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 36c | 75.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 65c | 73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes | 35c | 71.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94a3…67e3backed No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8049…b09dbacked Yes | 40c | 61.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd139…bb80backed Yes | 30c | 59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 63c | 55.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…5dc5backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e3…d1bdbacked No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d6…d67abacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 67c | 45.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 66c | 42.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 38c | 42.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…3094backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5b…650fbacked No | 60c | 36.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee0…71f4backed Yes | 35c | 35.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0773…3580backed No | 73c | 35.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…5e65backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f7…93a4backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…4651backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in August?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in August?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in August?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in August?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.