Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f2580e9ed1a2d48bc76cce406b9554c5f6d2c767b516d53b14c5f39ba1afee8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 12c | 1,427$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.16 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 65c | 695.85$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.41 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 2c | 615.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 5c | 238.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 10c | 215$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 11c | 207$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 6c | 197.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 34c | 186.36$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 70c | 180.77$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.22 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 29c | 158.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.2 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 25c | 154.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.29 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 141.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 21c | 124.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 60c | 113$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 35c | 99.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes | 27c | 98.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 12c | 83.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 107 | 22.4%24 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 51c | 75.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 79c | 75.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 60c | 61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 59c | 57.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 73c | 53.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 44c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 37.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?this page
- Will London Lamar be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?No won
- Will Steve Cohen be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.