Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Steve Cohen be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90b3a63203c32bc263c308ed8aabd6114db4cd1c9817e8a9bc9245074dd00157
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x611f…1f84backed No | 47c | 990$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed Yes | 53c | 990$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 65c | 518$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.53 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 36c | 441$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.83 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7516…8bebbacked Yes | 55c | 332$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…efafbacked Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 45c | 184.14$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.01 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 43c | 133$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 57c | 105$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 38c | 90$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked No | 42c | 64.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 44c | 64.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 31c | 61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 58c | 58.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 53c | 56.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 80c | 53.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 44c | 49.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe24…10fbbacked Yes | 54c | 48.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…1362backed Yes | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 46c | 25.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 51c | 22.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf53…1720backed Yes | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 74c | 14.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Steve Cohen be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?this page
- Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?Yes won
- Will London Lamar be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.