NFL · resolved market
Will Tua Tagovailoa play for Kansas City Chiefs in 2026-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96e14463a5585cad3847361c49014e63c4a6905e9d11f08a838ccccfcb9898a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,836 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x031e…560dbacked No | 72c | 297.96$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcc…35a5backed Yes | 28c | 289.82$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbac…969cbacked Yes | 28c | 288.23$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…09bebacked No | 72c | 286.75$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7562…e71fbacked Yes | 28c | 280.33$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5491…6e70backed No | 72c | 274.4$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1553…3dffbacked Yes | 28c | 264.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a4…4bd6backed No | 72c | 256.46$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…ca49backed No | 72c | 252.58$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0783…2c9bbacked Yes | 28c | 245.03$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 79c | 164.54$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 21c | 156$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tua Tagovailoa play for Kansas City Chiefs in 2026-27?this page
- Will Tua Tagovailoa play for Arizona Cardinals in 2026-27?No won
- Will Tua Tagovailoa play for Atlanta Falcons in 2026-27?Yes won
- Will Tua Tagovailoa play for Washington Commanders in 2026-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.