NFL · resolved market
Will Tua Tagovailoa play for Washington Commanders in 2026-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf95614d48624f144cdc2bc5261f1aec3c31a0a7f6e68f25115fe7084534e002
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,722 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0aa4…4130backed Yes | 20c | 271.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3815…0a80backed No | 80c | 271.53$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9294…fa48backed Yes | 20c | 269.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…642abacked Yes | 20c | 263.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…ec51backed No | 80c | 262.56$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47d1…61b1backed No | 80c | 261.59$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…a08abacked No | 80c | 258.63$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…d265backed No | 80c | 258$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2e…0af4backed No | 80c | 255.3$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea8…2820backed No | 80c | 252.58$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…ff59backed No | 80c | 241.9$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8724…c252backed No | 80c | 241.73$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0d…4498backed No | 80c | 238.24$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7575…d703backed Yes | 20c | 236.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a6…20fcbacked Yes | 20c | 233.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf5…3eb5backed No | 80c | 230.64$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa5…df15backed No | 80c | 227.19$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…1c21backed Yes | 20c | 225.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tua Tagovailoa play for Washington Commanders in 2026-27?this page
- Will Tua Tagovailoa play for Arizona Cardinals in 2026-27?No won
- Will Tua Tagovailoa play for Atlanta Falcons in 2026-27?Yes won
- Will Tua Tagovailoa play for Kansas City Chiefs in 2026-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.