World Politics · resolved market
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e717ea58b9537776fd06fc0a3c1112688e8b4ba35996f3893826a82d4f09e69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0414…be21backed Yes | 66c | 702.79$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.95 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 31c | 470.98$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.54 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 12c | 450$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd59…0231backed Yes | 74c | 163.12$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 37c | 152.17$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.39 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 13c | 147.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…304fbacked No | 16c | 140$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 30c | 134$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 34c | 127.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 105$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 16c | 84.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 32c | 54.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea7…7fc0backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…e0e3backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…a70ebacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 36c | 31.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?this page
- Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by 10–15%?No won
- Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by 5–10%?No won
- Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.