Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93ea66174d1c64530f1377068df67d6c2f733b3945fb09a3462227a1fa941c37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 15c | 44,432$6,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,793.64 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 16c | 10,966$1,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,773.58 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 7c | 4,360$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 7c | 2,721$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.14 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…daf5backed Yes | 15c | 2,441$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.69 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,424$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.16 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 2,350$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.73 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 19c | 1,620$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.3 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…d3dcbacked Yes | 10c | 1,506$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 13c | 1,400$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.99 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…6c30backed Yes | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 10c | 1,300$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.27 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 10c | 968.05$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…04e4backed Yes | 18c | 843.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b63…4b44backed Yes | 30c | 700$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.8 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 16c | 666.14$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.18 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 5c | 598.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 16c | 538$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed Yes | 22c | 520$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…84d2backed Yes | 16c | 360.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 6c | 341.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 7c | 333$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…75e3backed Yes | 11c | 331.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 5c | 324.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 281.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +1,104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d8…38f7backed Yes | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed No | 74c | 170$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…0e0bbacked Yes | 17c | 170$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 70c | 135$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 15c | 134.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd448…d1b7backed Yes | 11c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 16c | 107.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 98.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 70.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…153cbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in September?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% or less in September?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in September?Yes won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in September?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% or more in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.