TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in September?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$231,572
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$246,352

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,572 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes35c41,578$14,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,114.548636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes32c18,319$5,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,501.464027.5%11 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed No67c17,082$11,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,399.6912820.3%26 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c69…c149backed Yes37c14,252$5,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,908.212236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+208.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No1c13,998$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.981526.7%4 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick9cpaid+56.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes35c13,174$4,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,566.4722433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes35c9,825$3,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,370.781050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+31.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04ea…d556backed Yes37c9,718$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,167.671936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98fa…d698backed Yes35c9,509$3,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,206.735032%16 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes37c7,906$2,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,957.0210433.7%35 W · 69 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65b5…a403backed Yes39c6,182$2,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,791.362630.8%8 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick22cpaid-22.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3161…daf5backed Yes34c6,084$2,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,020.573426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcb4…b811backed Yes39c5,654$2,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,476.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No65c5,181$3,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,378.8523330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes35c4,372$1,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,830.14731.9%15 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb525…705bbacked Yes37c4,300$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7252540%10 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb118…8d34backed Yes37c3,690$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,341.27650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+43.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x404f…561dbacked Yes39c3,041$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,840.61816.7%3 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-54%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes36c2,126$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,369.0514325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes43c1,850$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.124250%21 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…d3dcbacked No60c1,675$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf650…1c51backed Yes33c1,452$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.831942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed Yes79c1,153$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.283847.4%18 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+42.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No17c822$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.74156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9a7…b556backed No60c817.68$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No63c792.69$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.479144%40 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes32c775$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.2511039.1%43 W · 67 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+115.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes31c671$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.995819%11 W · 47 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55d8…0cf5backed Yes41c616.45$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.451668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+59.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb86e…8cfdbacked Yes40c600$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3601070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+41.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5be9…9106backed Yes37c600$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3782236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+42.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No65c586.44$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.622934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe92…d51abacked Yes33c514$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.94955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick30cpaid+27%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes43c500$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+22.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6147…d34ebacked Yes35c500$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3272540%10 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4a8…84f5backed Yes39c496$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.92450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes39c453.34$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.0317528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes45c450$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.86235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c439.66$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.3715148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x018a…4651backed Yes32c417.45$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.322123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-37.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed Yes38c399.99$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.996523.1%15 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No79c365$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.4411334.5%39 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcb7…5b4bbacked Yes44c350$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.81216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No61c334.47$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.452740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-25.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf57f…e5fcbacked No57c310$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No70c274.76$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.864751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef5…9e19backed Yes40c262.5$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes43c260$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.22913.8%4 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+67.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x399d…bf83backed Yes42c250$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1451100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0d8…38f7backed Yes37c250$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.051233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b4e…0e0bbacked Yes40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1502025%5 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes32c232$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.7514024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22d2…75e3backed Yes36c219.49$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.47128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-76.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No61c205.23$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.1911359.3%67 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed No63c200$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aba…c083backed Yes41c200$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11813338.3%51 W · 82 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+66.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaaf5…95adbacked No69c200$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-51.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6547…8043backed Yes31c170$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.32142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No67c150$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.16429.7%19 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0d0…4032backed Yes43c141.52$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes41c135$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.65850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Yes42c134.86$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.221643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee5…0836backed Yes32c125$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+34.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed No70c120$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.61353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d8a…84d2backed Yes40c117.07$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.08450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes38c107.35$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.562733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes19c104.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.761250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753070%21 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a28…0972backed No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6420%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26ea…67adbacked Yes40c89.57$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.521127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-43.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x692f…7c55backed Yes41c75.44$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes39c75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.751656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+26.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked No37c74.84$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8740%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No62c70.66$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.09850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No64c68$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5250%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No67c63.05$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.24475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x300d…ab3dbacked Yes32c62.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+36.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes43c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.27525.3%19 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34c2…67f3backed No62c58.06$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb61…329dbacked Yes39c48.72$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9619…ed6abacked Yes35c48.57$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f0…e696backed Yes33c45.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a53…52adbacked Yes45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.44425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef85…f2b9backed No63c43.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes41c42$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.781553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb29e…fd62backed Yes44c42$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1543…4c16backed No62c41.94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f13…72b5backed Yes36c40.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fa3…b116backed No63c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x688f…c123backed Yes38c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc639…c5a2backed Yes38c39.47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.47757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40b7…8a8dbacked Yes39c37.62$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca61…cd2dbacked No62c37.31$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7512…1986backed Yes37c36.43$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe191…6067backed No66c35.91$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9be9…c030backed No58c35.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.43475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+33.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7740…cbcdbacked No62c32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed No60c30.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.62650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+113.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.