TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in September?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$132,193
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,498

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,193 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes42c20,414$8,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,519.828636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes38c15,849$6,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,039.4422433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes42c13,200$5,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,483.424027.5%11 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c69…c149backed Yes41c8,458$3,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,501.072236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+208.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes44c8,340$3,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,681.091050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+31.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04ea…d556backed Yes40c7,832$3,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,164.241936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3161…daf5backed Yes38c5,312$2,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,038.963426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98fa…d698backed Yes38c4,600$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,745.385032%16 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes39c2,868$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.454731.9%15 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb118…8d34backed Yes42c2,800$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.96650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+43.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes39c2,671$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.935819%11 W · 47 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes34c2,350$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.714325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb525…705bbacked Yes42c2,300$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.52540%10 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes8c1,750$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes39c1,711$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.382934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb23…6c30backed Yes35c1,450$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-76.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed Yes34c1,400$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.746523.1%15 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No60c1,143$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.323330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e2…b98cbacked Yes29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes40c909.39$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.384250%21 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed No60c700$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2801643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes33c665.56$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.72677.5%5 W · 62 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b63…4b44backed Yes39c653.47$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.463231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4a8…84f5backed Yes32c612.33$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x018a…4651backed Yes46c600$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2762123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-37.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6147…d34ebacked Yes39c599.98$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.912540%10 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e8e…46d6backed No58c596.22$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36f1…1617backed Yes45c549.99$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2056827.9%19 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes30c500$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15111039.1%43 W · 67 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+115.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes39c499.82$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.85850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+22.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dd1…0034backed Yes42c479.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94fe…2d2dbacked Yes44c454.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0d8…38f7backed Yes39c450$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1751233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes30c435.5$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes39c412.88$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.4450%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf650…1c51backed Yes42c411.76$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.181942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed No61c360$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.43847.4%18 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+42.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x1aba…c083backed Yes34c316.84$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3113338.3%51 W · 82 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+66.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdcee…bda5backed Yes42c307.58$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.185145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes35c260$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.87525.3%19 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdf7…0426backed Yes43c256.28$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-69.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c250.66$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.2115148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No61c250$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.512049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x264d…6f2bbacked Yes39c241.72$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.152147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed No72c211.78$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.29862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee7e…7cccbacked No61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick36cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x541c…c462backed Yes40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d05…aee5backed Yes40c189.5$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.81338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-29.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes34c186.47$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8917528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No58c180$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.61154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…84d2backed Yes40c173.25$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.65450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b4e…0e0bbacked Yes36c170$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.22025%5 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22d2…75e3backed Yes42c166.66$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-76.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed No70c152.16$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.96650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+113.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9007…70d7backed Yes30c150$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+44.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes41c140$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.96429.7%19 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes41c135$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.356235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes38c127.73$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8514024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No69c118.55$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.54850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes35c115.31$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.366139.3%24 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes28c107.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.812733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes40c104.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.61154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+81.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9e5…f261backed No61c102$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.78540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274422.7%10 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+102.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82a0…14b3backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-72.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8b…a211backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71e…f450backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.811334.5%39 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No57c90$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.43070%21 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed No60c90$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.31353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes35c88.83$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.79144%40 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x26ea…67adbacked Yes38c86.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.141127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-43.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x34cf…50d7backed Yes39c81.18$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes34c75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+26.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed No60c74.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed Yes42c71.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.191060%6 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+85.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d9d…e979backed Yes40c62.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b0f…33dcbacked No59c61.05$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes20c59.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9912820.3%26 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No72c57$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.19475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa68…e52dbacked Yes42c52.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf2a…bf19backed No63c50.79$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.791338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8def…196fbacked No59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89d5…591bbacked No58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-65.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a53…52adbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb29e…fd62backed Yes39c48.87$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x300d…ab3dbacked Yes41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+36.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9488…8a29backed Yes29c48.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No65c47.3$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5511359.3%67 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a94…ed73backed Yes44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4120242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes32c42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.441553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ad4…e6a1backed Yes42c40.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc639…c5a2backed Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9be9…c030backed No66c35.31$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.96475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+33.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.