Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% or less in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7ed87fa51c47ae48dbd0606c4f960b97e9c38af7f1bd215097abc04d4e1727d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $179,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 6c | 28,139$1,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,634.47 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a403backed Yes | 12c | 22,991$2,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,784.49 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…561dbacked Yes | 10c | 18,613$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 7c | 13,698$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.45 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 9c | 13,529$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.86 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 13c | 8,263$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.3 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes | 5c | 8,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.21 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…daf5backed Yes | 10c | 4,076$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…9e19backed Yes | 14c | 3,896$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 7c | 3,788$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 19c | 3,777$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 14c | 2,300$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 8c | 2,106$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 9c | 1,571$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.69 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,341$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,300$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 7c | 1,299$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f5…61cabacked Yes | 13c | 1,225$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +115.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…b811backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 5c | 996$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…44b5backed Yes | 14c | 820.21$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 16c | 638.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 6c | 599.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 16c | 589.65$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 16c | 505.85$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd1…0034backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57f…e5fcbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd65e…bc0cbacked Yes | 20c | 498.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…0fa8backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…6c30backed Yes | 18c | 344.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 308.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes | 9c | 284.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7096backed Yes | 5c | 280$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 2cpaid | +889.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 6c | 260$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…0e0bbacked Yes | 12c | 249.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 14c | 229.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6e…c8a0backed Yes | 9c | 215$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…c5babacked Yes | 14c | 212.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 9c | 210$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…b22cbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0edf…646bbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 191.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 12c | 166$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 8c | 144.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aee…54f4backed Yes | 25c | 127.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…c4f2backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd219…d24dbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 14c | 107.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d5…591bbacked Yes | 14c | 100.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…6af3backed Yes | 13c | 98.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…c030backed No | 47c | 35.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…e140backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% or less in September?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in September?Yes won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in September?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in September?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% or more in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.