China Taiwan · resolved market
Trump x Xi Jinping talk before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ed45ff24a7d3aad20468e56e2ff46ef89b20e414db7197bc4b89865cb0206b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 10c | 5,260$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,963$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 11c | 3,213$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 2,461$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 9c | 2,224$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.94 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.7wins | +0.36per pick | 56cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x98aa…fcb3backed Yes | 7c | 2,200$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,495$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 9c | 1,234$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 10c | 1,021$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 5c | 999$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.53per pick | 27cpaid | +350.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed Yes | 5c | 998.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes | 22c | 922.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 10c | 873$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 19c | 814.5$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed Yes | 14c | 800$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 9c | 715$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a03…68d1backed Yes | 8c | 657.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 17c | 470.39$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdca7…d306backed Yes | 22c | 455.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…bd26backed Yes | 10c | 420$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes | 19c | 407.09$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f29…1e12backed Yes | 12c | 334.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed7a…c24bbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a2…e144backed Yes | 15c | 325$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 6c | 321$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 310$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4162…d199backed Yes | 17c | 295$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 14c | 237$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 21cpaid | +432.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ce…9ad0backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9596…b1e4backed Yes | 16c | 209.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…2225backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…6984backed Yes | 25c | 196.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 8c | 173.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 7c | 149.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed Yes | 9c | 137.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…1e34backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…6bb9backed No | 79c | 125.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa124…cd7bbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 14c | 121.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e2bfbacked Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 21c | 109.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…09b5backed Yes | 16c | 101.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d9…b270backed No | 76c | 100.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…3ef4backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 14c | 99.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 14c | 88.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x352a…b8a8backed No | 79c | 85.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…25c0backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x028a…fe96backed Yes | 35c | 57.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e13…d054backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7220…936ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 80c | 32.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1e…51eebacked No | 79c | 31.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 74c | 26.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…82adbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd303…9c76backed No | 74c | 20.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c3…a8e5backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.