TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$145,984
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$152,542

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,984 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes42c18,876$7,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,038.88636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes40c13,800$5,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,328.314027.5%11 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No1c12,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201526.7%4 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick9cpaid+56.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes41c11,031$4,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,481.7322433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No1c7,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No1c7,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes42c6,591$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,831.8210433.7%35 W · 69 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes43c4,933$2,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,805.464731.9%15 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No58c4,141$2,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,416.69144%40 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb525…705bbacked Yes40c3,000$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8092540%10 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04ea…d556backed Yes44c2,610$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.811936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb118…8d34backed Yes44c2,376$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.91650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+43.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes43c2,234$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.175819%11 W · 47 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3161…daf5backed Yes41c2,200$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3013426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes41c2,017$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.834422.7%10 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+102.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98fa…d698backed Yes43c2,000$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1415032%16 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes40c1,626$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.8719931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes46c1,420$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.364250%21 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes40c1,387$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.8212820.3%26 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcee…bda5backed Yes46c1,342$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.335145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6547…8043backed Yes39c1,260$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.52142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c69…c149backed Yes46c1,181$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.742236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+208.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e25…1531backed No59c1,150$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.772454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes43c1,051$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.632623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bec…56d0backed Yes44c1,011$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.411127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes41c1,010$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.233920.5%8 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick23cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes38c1,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6206827.9%19 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1537…c480backed Yes42c923.52$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.533100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+92.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf650…1c51backed Yes39c838.99$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5111942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6147…d34ebacked Yes41c800$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.22540%10 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Yes43c776.97$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.87333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes40c751.25$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.75837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes41c718.18$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.72934.5%10 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c653.62$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.8715148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No58c582.1$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.724751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1318…df41backed Yes44c554$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.71233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02f1…bc37backed No57c548.35$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59a3…a0aabacked No57c439.95$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8f3…4c06backed Yes45c421.43$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed No59c420$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.941643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes42c388.18$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.6614024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcca0…3738backed Yes49c358.37$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes39c343$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.8677.5%5 W · 62 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x018a…4651backed Yes39c340$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.12123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-37.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x55d8…0cf5backed Yes43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1711668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+59.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes38c300$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18614325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd607…3b70backed Yes43c279.07$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.07333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab25…0806backed No60c270.22$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94a3…67e3backed Yes40c270$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1622020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-54.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes47c265$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.856235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbea…e2b0backed Yes38c260.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.852100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+108.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x264d…6f2bbacked Yes44c254.49$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.492147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2361…e16ebacked Yes44c239.44$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes39c230$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.36429.7%19 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes47c227$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.311154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No58c206.85$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.817528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.171250%6 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b63…4b44backed Yes41c200$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1183231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed No59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x928f…045abacked Yes43c199.99$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No61c168$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6623330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd0…9812backed Yes48c156.22$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x278f…715fbacked No60c150$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x541c…c462backed Yes43c150$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes41c128.82$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-51.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f1b…9a2dbacked Yes39c127.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes43c126.22$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.981154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+81.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44eb…e2b1backed Yes45c122.91$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec73…6af3backed Yes42c120.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.14425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes42c119.27$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.271250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes42c117.22$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.991154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aba…c083backed Yes47c106.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.713338.3%51 W · 82 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+66.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No58c102$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.163070%21 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c101$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.620242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked No58c101$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.583435.3%12 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f7…1c49backed No55c100.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-25.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x63b4…7e30backed Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6311039.1%43 W · 67 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+115.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1d3…4356backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…2220backed No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc924…567abacked No57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.31per pick47cpaid-78.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3aa…bddcbacked No61c89.76$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.174344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No58c83.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.41553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a4…52b5backed Yes48c83.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7412…9dcabacked Yes43c81.4$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4a8…84f5backed Yes44c80$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x057d…6eddbacked Yes41c75$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+91.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94db…55f5backed Yes44c73.82$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.34633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d1…67ccbacked No56c71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.81520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccac…ab7dbacked No57c70.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0d8…38f7backed Yes45c70$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.21233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d7f…6727backed No56c68.18$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc793…9fccbacked Yes44c68.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes45c60$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.259024.4%22 W · 68 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Yes41c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff94…c347backed Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+75.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x95ff…39b9backed No60c44.95$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c59…ae3fbacked No58c42.24$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.