TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$142,924
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$137,210

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,924 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes36c25,159$9,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,007.558636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes33c15,556$5,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,167.8310433.7%35 W · 69 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes40c15,000$5,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,943.524027.5%11 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed No62c9,964$6,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,816.912820.3%26 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes36c8,931$3,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,203.4422433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x404f…561dbacked Yes38c7,258$2,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7801816.7%3 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-54%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No61c7,224$4,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,795.332934.5%10 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes32c5,711$1,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.114731.9%15 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No61c5,503$3,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,129.4123330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3962…7c83backed Yes40c4,500$1,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,815540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb525…705bbacked Yes37c4,100$1,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5292540%10 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No64c3,655$2,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,317.289144%40 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e25…1531backed No64c3,554$2,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,274.62454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x27c4…a6bebacked Yes38c2,604$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.62560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed Yes32c2,509$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.16580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+39%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x401a…d730backed Yes34c2,397$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.6750%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3161…daf5backed Yes35c2,285$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.23426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6547…8043backed Yes41c2,120$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.72142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04ea…d556backed Yes35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes37c2,000$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73819931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb118…8d34backed Yes37c1,675$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+43.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes31c1,504$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes35c1,412$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.414250%21 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4c8…5449backed Yes40c1,262$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked No67c1,260$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.46827.9%19 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c09…a632backed Yes34c1,220$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4161330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf650…1c51backed Yes36c1,168$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.481942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No67c992$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.362560%15 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5bec…56d0backed Yes40c927.37$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.431127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No67c919$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.6412049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6147…d34ebacked Yes35c800$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.52540%10 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes36c637.9$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.942623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No62c596.49$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.24751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes37c589$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.931154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cae…aa17backed Yes36c565.44$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.49650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+52.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes33c555$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.96235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x018a…4651backed Yes40c510$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.32123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-37.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes30c502.73$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.822913.8%4 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+67.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No65c436.44$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.671250%6 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd607…3b70backed Yes32c412.5$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes36c376$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.164231%13 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dbd…4f8bbacked Yes34c340.14$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-56.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06bc…2887backed Yes30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes37c322.5$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1199024.4%22 W · 68 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f3…4c06backed Yes36c305.72$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes37c302.68$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7514024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No63c301.04$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.961553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55d8…0cf5backed Yes34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.651668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+59.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11114325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes29c300$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863435.3%12 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf33…3727backed Yes39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-37.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c291.54$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.615148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef41…2473backed Yes36c290.29$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.51127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0aee…54f4backed Yes37c273.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a0a…db49backed Yes38c270$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.21442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbdb…bc90backed Yes38c263.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1c9…bc00backed Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Yes37c234.91$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2361…e16ebacked Yes40c234.85$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x928f…045abacked Yes36c200.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b63…4b44backed Yes41c200$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2751…c88dbacked No67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16a1…24f8backed Yes35c196.82$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No63c158.63$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.686429.7%19 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked Yes32c150$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-49.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes35c150$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-51.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x339f…e806backed Yes40c150$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0d3…634fbacked Yes33c150$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4b43…53a3backed Yes34c147.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1237…06afbacked Yes35c135$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.611526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-47.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26dc…e03abacked Yes40c120$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…2220backed No61c117.49$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.77560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes36c117$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1211039.1%43 W · 67 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+115.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x384a…39c0backed Yes33c111.04$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3811334.5%39 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1d1…be4ebacked Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x63b4…7e30backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3520242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346523.1%15 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d8…38f7backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.331233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98fa…d698backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365032%16 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes37c99.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed Yes32c99.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323847.4%18 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+42.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x9dda…a444backed Yes37c94.59$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd6…4ab1backed Yes37c92.72$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No63c92.12$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0717528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes32c90$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3aa…bddcbacked No62c80$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.344344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43f7…35e5backed Yes37c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+46.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4a8…84f5backed Yes29c80$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1a7…a9cdbacked Yes32c78.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057d…6eddbacked Yes37c75$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+91.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…b071backed Yes33c74.27$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.413928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e54…5f61backed Yes41c69$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes40c62.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd31f…094cbacked Yes40c62.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3563…fb44backed Yes40c60.07$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Yes42c59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.78633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.