Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% or more in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2c486555a303e0a31c161a0d59955b937455c14db0fc7bdd424d163379d9300
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 14c | 18,700$2,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,668.39 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 19c | 16,278$3,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,140.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 15c | 12,004$1,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,793.4 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 17c | 9,467$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.79 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 17c | 7,000$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.04 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 16c | 6,366$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.18 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a40…1386backed Yes | 23c | 5,895$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,327.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 17c | 4,632$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.28 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Yes | 21c | 4,381$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401a…d730backed Yes | 24c | 4,148$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 17c | 3,132$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.08 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 20c | 2,543$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.81 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…3727backed Yes | 23c | 2,344$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bec…56d0backed Yes | 21c | 2,171$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,017$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.85 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes | 19c | 1,962$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed No | 77c | 1,659$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.97 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab25…0806backed Yes | 26c | 1,556$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec6…ef46backed Yes | 20c | 1,538$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 16c | 1,488$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.22 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,457$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.91 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 20c | 1,454$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.01 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 10c | 1,432$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.15 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 1,245$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.75 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 17c | 1,191$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.99 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…c336backed Yes | 14c | 1,071$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 14c | 1,051$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 19c | 1,026$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.68 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4a…104fbacked Yes | 22c | 810.42$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…2bf1backed Yes | 19c | 638.97$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96fd…4a88backed Yes | 3c | 549.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…3990backed Yes | 19c | 536.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…7f5cbacked Yes | 19c | 526$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e4…eff6backed Yes | 13c | 500.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…daf5backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 16c | 499.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cae…aa17backed Yes | 17c | 464.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…df41backed Yes | 19c | 450.35$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…eea2backed Yes | 18c | 388.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 21c | 343$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed No | 78c | 333$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 18c | 289$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfb…9762backed No | 76c | 263$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 15c | 260$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…12efbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1d…5048backed Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca0…3738backed Yes | 17c | 205.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 23c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +1,104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee5…0836backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…9e27backed Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a3…67e3backed No | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8828…3e50backed Yes | 22c | 183.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…05bdbacked Yes | 22c | 154.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -6.5wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd139…bb80backed Yes | 14c | 126$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6470…6c00backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…212fbacked Yes | 14c | 113$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…6af3backed Yes | 19c | 110.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 14c | 107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfe…6607backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ab…16f0backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…9dcabacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 77c | 78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…5bc5backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…d004backed No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f7…93a4backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% or more in August?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or less in August?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in August?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in August?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.