TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 3%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,533
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,715

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,533 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x58b7…f66dbacked Yes41c6,071$2,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,485.03450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f63…680ebacked Yes19c4,157$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.34944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes9c3,650$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.915728.1%16 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes9c3,190$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.553135.5%11 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-44.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4371…2e31backed Yes33c2,056$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.23425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-64.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed No79c1,622$1,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.481741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91b0…4da1backed Yes38c1,510$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.611926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-49.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa703…3335backed Yes14c1,175$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+86.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes39c1,061$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.5814947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1728…c190backed Yes9c1,053$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505630.4%17 W · 39 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No55c966.08$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.2312345.5%56 W · 67 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes22c869.43$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.15555.5%3 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-92.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No57c789.28$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.475843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de2…8483backed Yes32c778.21$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.633951.3%20 W · 19 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes10c712$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.916533.8%22 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes25c700$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17428434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…f8e4backed Yes47c673.97$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.02633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes16c641.41$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7811331%35 W · 78 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…eae0backed No76c625$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.96650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No68c600.08$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.1314834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005d…2dedbacked Yes9c555.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick22cpaid+182.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes20c540.37$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.944634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5986…83e3backed Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes10c500$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.62142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21b4…967dbacked Yes10c485.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9260%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a1a…60d7backed No58c416.4$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c7…c0c0backed No61c404.77$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.75650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No72c396.33$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.736914.5%10 W · 59 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-59.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x54a3…102cbacked No61c392.75$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.43250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde2b…73a0backed Yes32c329$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.611631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd137…ceacbacked No79c303$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.84540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-49.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes21c294.79$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0144921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b2e…fe02backed No68c277$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.92580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43a9…faebbacked No79c272.23$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.981361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf8f…c28fbacked Yes10c270.47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes21c264$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb25c…6d89backed No62c260$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.61181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick59cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c58…8c00backed Yes11c257.84$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6240%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa11b…f663backed No72c246.96$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.132580%20 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88c4…758bbacked Yes33c245$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.34475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes12c229.2$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.194540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c55…8adebacked Yes6c212.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.18944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75aa…9f2abacked Yes38c210$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.11837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-43.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.47135.2%25 W · 46 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x442a…7c94backed Yes45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906141%25 W · 36 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+93.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes38c192.14$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0937117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41f2…d8efbacked No64c165.71$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.061258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2247…96e8backed Yes21c152$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.53560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+186%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdaa9…bad5backed Yes11c142.08$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.62650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes25c141.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.161,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3de…5339backed Yes33c140$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.48137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.29per pick37cpaid-83.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf62b…2adcbacked Yes34c140$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bbb…5c80backed No79c122$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.111241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39b5…cf5fbacked Yes47c120$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.041833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-49.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes16c108$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x731b…90dfbacked Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.262532%8 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.328430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No61c99.23$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.766883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes34c88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.041,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes21c79.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7814027.9%39 W · 101 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes33c76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.231442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd39c…8a14backed Yes41c61.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14d4…c3f7backed Yes28c59.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde37…b9bfbacked Yes35c56.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55c7…b063backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x949a…721cbacked Yes42c47.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ac…7b99backed Yes43c46.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.12250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb862…5aaebacked No67c46$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.271050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4034…373dbacked Yes45c43.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.94837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c54…f0bbbacked Yes35c42.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34e6…e673backed Yes49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9228…e41abacked No66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+55.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ae6…7485backed Yes32c39.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.542626.9%7 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-32.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7170…ed44backed No68c39$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.52650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked Yes44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.22416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-59.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd030…3e6bbacked No57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb740…81bdbacked No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46fc…7766backed No78c12.82$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-36%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.