Us Politics · resolved market
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34b5e429032dae4f4175d01e7123e90cac80d9e5b9ff4838e47d1e91985c093d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 8c | 6,731$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcea9…bdc1backed No | 38c | 4,321$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 9c | 4,293$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.66 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…4b92backed No | 7c | 3,641$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 22c | 2,759$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.59 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 36c | 1,952$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.26 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 2c | 1,465$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…91e2backed Yes | 68c | 1,417$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed No | 32c | 1,406$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.65 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 24c | 1,368$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.81 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…c427backed Yes | 70c | 1,095$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.67 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1961…c461backed Yes | 66c | 978.99$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 25c | 920.4$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.88 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 6c | 900$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked Yes | 72c | 851$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.06 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc902…cd14backed No | 40c | 749.65$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 21c | 724.3$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…9e5ebacked Yes | 71c | 718$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c71…a36dbacked No | 42c | 620$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.4 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +5.8wins | +0.38per pick | 35cpaid | +271.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 8c | 554.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 38c | 442.45$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…9062backed Yes | 74c | 410.2$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 57c | 400$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 399.79$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.92 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf529…755fbacked No | 40c | 323.57$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x688d…fb8ebacked No | 7c | 320.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 23c | 318.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef86…5afcbacked Yes | 76c | 229$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 12c | 192.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 45c | 191.33$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 12c | 177.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 62c | 171.82$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked Yes | 76c | 119$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 12c | 117.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d1…d2ccbacked No | 13c | 107.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed Yes | 77c | 98.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +212.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 76c | 92.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Yes | 77c | 92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Yes | 77c | 86.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6d…3ef9backed No | 41c | 85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 77c | 73.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e4…6ee4backed Yes | 74c | 65.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 18c | 60.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 71c | 59.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba54…699dbacked No | 28c | 52.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6a…49a9backed No | 24c | 41.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 79c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…3f0ebacked Yes | 74c | 40.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…f467backed Yes | 78c | 38.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…fa7bbacked Yes | 70c | 37.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…d916backed Yes | 65c | 35.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Yes | 77c | 30.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…cc1cbacked Yes | 62c | 30.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e35…0d9cbacked Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…87b8backed No | 39c | 27.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd008…fa05backed No | 39c | 27.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +206.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…6d94backed No | 40c | 26.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 62c | 21.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cea…0685backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +236.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd761…a957backed Yes | 79c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.