NBA · resolved market
Will Ja Morant be traded before the 2026 trade deadline?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3205ebc8b50ac5bc7f09511bb422563004bafb68c547398a544feee01c79723
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 999.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 28c | 833.4$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +261.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8f…d587backed No | 47c | 707.67$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed No | 50c | 699.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked No | 32c | 582.17$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.56 | 293 | 46.4%136 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…3d65backed Yes | 75c | 468.89$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfef4…d202backed Yes | 76c | 421.12$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfc…a5c2backed Yes | 67c | 325.24$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.71 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecee…35c3backed No | 52c | 287.2$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…4195backed No | 71c | 263.95$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 60c | 258.79$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Yes | 79c | 253.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7720…da92backed Yes | 26c | 231.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 10c | 207.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.64 | 76 | 22.4%17 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f82…ae94backed Yes | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 174.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.26 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +24.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…d298backed Yes | 67c | 173.16$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb96a…000bbacked Yes | 52c | 172.71$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…50d2backed No | 56c | 159.81$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.58 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…f416backed No | 32c | 158.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +273%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6721…d75bbacked No | 52c | 155.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.78 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 32c | 152.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.84 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0811…06f1backed No | 39c | 129.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 33c | 128.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 43c | 110.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 110.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.58 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 55c | 108.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…7c36backed No | 15c | 106.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.31 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe406…858cbacked No | 38c | 105.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 31c | 103.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf9…d6f0backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcff…237ebacked No | 48c | 98.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 77c | 90.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ab…4069backed Yes | 66c | 90.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…58fcbacked No | 49c | 82.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 52c | 70.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 250 | 45.6%114 W · 136 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…03d1backed No | 51c | 67.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cc…ae8dbacked No | 39c | 63.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…f3bbbacked Yes | 39c | 51.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8559…0602backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 26c | 46.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…3acebacked No | 66c | 45.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…d1b4backed Yes | 79c | 44.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 45c | 42.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…169ebacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Yes | 48c | 37.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…fa43backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed No | 60c | 37.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fec…f89dbacked No | 74c | 33.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 45c | 32.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…7a6fbacked No | 80c | 31.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c59…c2c0backed No | 43c | 29.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 62c | 29.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…c278backed Yes | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x573d…a92cbacked Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x881e…58bebacked Yes | 80c | 21.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98fc…5382backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.8wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe865…3f63backed No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bc…a8fabacked No | 70c | 17.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1576…5078backed Yes | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb388…dc58backed Yes | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.