Commodities · resolved market
Will fewer than 200 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44a232fe89419db88c5237863d40e3c32b5846ac370c8a6a247fe167a946647d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 27c | 876$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 43c | 847.34$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.76 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…2e56backed Yes | 70c | 695.61$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.22per pick | 61cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…a399backed No | 27c | 577.84$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +298.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 400$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 71c | 387.29$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.98 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c4…0926backed Yes | 73c | 314.08$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +250.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98a…4db0backed No | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed No | 31c | 225.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.81 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +5.7wins | +0.25per pick | 67cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa108…abd3backed Yes | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…c199backed Yes | 74c | 186.78$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 74c | 161$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.14 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0195backed No | 32c | 157.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +360.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 70c | 154.37$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.52 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 29c | 129.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.19 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2072…ede6backed Yes | 71c | 71.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 29c | 70.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 30c | 69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…224dbacked Yes | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 74c | 52.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 30c | 51.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 32c | 45.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 29c | 44.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -12.9wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 74c | 24.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 72c | 24.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4056…f839backed Yes | 70c | 19.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 67c | 18.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 200 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2?this page
- Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.