Commodities · resolved market
Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29f816de292ec1f6fde107c2edcbd0c16e00fcf4b13b7c2d22e4dd9936f41a16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 59c | 1,449$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.79 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 34c | 1,219$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.39 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0195backed Yes | 17c | 302$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +360.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…a399backed Yes | 22c | 293.41$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +298.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c4…0926backed No | 78c | 180$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +250.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 174.12$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.59 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa108…abd3backed Yes | 16c | 125.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 109.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 79c | 106$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…2e56backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 33c | 69.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 15.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2?this page
- Will fewer than 200 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.