Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62069242d8bddac58737050eb6e48a968a994fa48a8964cd9f1d2b2e4b6e5174
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe78a…cd4bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,743$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 64c | 2,327$1,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.68 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 35c | 2,010$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.66 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 65c | 1,713$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.29 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 32c | 1,500$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 36c | 1,265$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.4 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 78c | 625.08$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.08 | 20 | 100%20 W · 0 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 506.69$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.57 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 61c | 448.75$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.41 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 29c | 424$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 68c | 414.35$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.1 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36f8…8f35backed No | 66c | 350$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…e990backed Yes | 34c | 350$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 310.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 71c | 305$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.45 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 32c | 262$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.04 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked Yes | 38c | 255.3$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…a1aebacked Yes | 31c | 199.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aae…e7a0backed No | 64c | 131.63$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…a0a8backed No | 70c | 131$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 71c | 130$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 56c | 122.76$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 57c | 117.09$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 108.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…1cc2backed Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bca…7316backed Yes | 44c | 90.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa405…99acbacked Yes | 45c | 89.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…2427backed Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f8…9c25backed Yes | 46c | 87.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…a63ebacked Yes | 44c | 85.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a10…ad8fbacked Yes | 47c | 84.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 56c | 81.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4396…f0e1backed Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 69c | 77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7336…23e3backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9449…b5b3backed Yes | 43c | 69.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b50…9e30backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4510backed Yes | 44c | 63.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0f…6e94backed Yes | 37c | 53.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…a05cbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 57c | 46.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…0a41backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x114d…20f9backed Yes | 41c | 38.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa288…f80fbacked Yes | 36c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 37c | 35.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf94…3c83backed Yes | 42c | 34.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…f8e6backed Yes | 44c | 31.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…c147backed Yes | 38c | 31.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164e…5eaabacked Yes | 44c | 28.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bc…5601backed Yes | 70c | 28.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b6…e312backed Yes | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…5afabacked No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%?this page
- Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.6%?No won
- Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.7%?No won
- Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.4%?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.