Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.4%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x113339c092550e3bd7c6b9df47a6ccd969f9113af2e42cf25c989af4234a7a5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 22c | 3,652$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,832.82 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +159%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed No | 74c | 2,666$1,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,961.95 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 27c | 2,622$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,915.64 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 20c | 1,959$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.93 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6131…fd16backed No | 78c | 1,281$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 28c | 1,234$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 15c | 1,225$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.51 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 79c | 1,184$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.33 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…4434backed No | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed No | 73c | 985.24$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.8 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 9c | 861.4$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.87 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 21c | 619.36$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.02 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 22c | 540.79$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f8…8f35backed Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…e990backed Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 79c | 484$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.96 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 21c | 444$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.76 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 71c | 356.02$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.66 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…bdbabacked Yes | 20c | 314$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +406.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 305.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.08 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked No | 80c | 271.85$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.99 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 65c | 199.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.93 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 67c | 114.37$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab7f…919cbacked Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked Yes | 32c | 98.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe506…aaadbacked No | 76c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 72c | 79.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 65.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…1ee5backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 77c | 41.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 74c | 26.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.4%?this page
- Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%?No won
- Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.6%?No won
- Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.7%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.