Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.6%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7455bf3c2bc4a8068a000ad288720be5c6130aa1702dc56044bde39f7c917697
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 73c | 3,180$2,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.25 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 74c | 1,337$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.56 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 27c | 1,235$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.08 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 27c | 1,111$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 67c | 624.76$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 603.18$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.66 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 507.48$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.77 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f8…8f35backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…e990backed No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe0…c9b4backed No | 71c | 299.97$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked Yes | 31c | 279$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed No | 68c | 252.99$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…1cc2backed Yes | 27c | 222.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 28c | 210$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4396…f0e1backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…a1aebacked Yes | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa405…99acbacked Yes | 35c | 185.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a10…ad8fbacked Yes | 34c | 174.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f8…9c25backed Yes | 40c | 150.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked No | 74c | 135.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4510backed Yes | 33c | 122.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9449…b5b3backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 63c | 106.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 14c | 102.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +359.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…6da4backed Yes | 40c | 99.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…c147backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…f8e6backed Yes | 28c | 89.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 27c | 84.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…f10ebacked Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7336…23e3backed Yes | 39c | 76.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x338e…418cbacked Yes | 33c | 75.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164e…5eaabacked Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x114d…20f9backed Yes | 35c | 68.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8275…ef90backed Yes | 31c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0f…6e94backed Yes | 30c | 65.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b6…e312backed Yes | 28c | 64.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf94…3c83backed Yes | 27c | 60.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55b…5a41backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…2427backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba64…f4c4backed Yes | 34c | 59.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 32c | 59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b50…9e30backed Yes | 35c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 68c | 53.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 53.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fe…3bfdbacked Yes | 34c | 51.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…0a41backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…a05cbacked Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…9141backed Yes | 34c | 45.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309a…342dbacked Yes | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebf…a54cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa288…f80fbacked Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…06d4backed Yes | 36c | 31.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf47…4d00backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 73c | 24.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.6%?this page
- Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%?No won
- Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.7%?No won
- Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.4%?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.