Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.7%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8a62d3152a2c85438b3b5a53b35039523b52faba948be90c8ffcdd8713b7612
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 17c | 1,113$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.84 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f8…8f35backed Yes | 14c | 800$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 12c | 583$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 501.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed Yes | 18c | 333$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 15c | 324.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked Yes | 24c | 299.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 76c | 283$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.92 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 210$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…a1aebacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8275…ef90backed Yes | 20c | 150.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba64…f4c4backed Yes | 24c | 140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…c7fbbacked Yes | 11c | 119$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +70%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338e…418cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +359.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…f10ebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa439…9e2cbacked Yes | 24c | 84.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fe…3bfdbacked Yes | 29c | 69.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…7348backed Yes | 15c | 67.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 77c | 63.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf55b…5a41backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5221…bd4dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…b734backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.7%?this page
- Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%?No won
- Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.6%?No won
- Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.4%?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.