TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,898
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,930

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,898 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7fd3…e662backed No11c12,077$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.151816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-50.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe74d…22fdbacked No21c9,162$1,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,968.14540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No15c3,886$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.7210338.8%40 W · 63 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked No5c3,875$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.613941%16 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x05c4…003fbacked Yes72c3,047$2,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.44425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-65.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb128…cf58backed Yes76c2,847$2,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6901100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6abe…d6a5backed Yes75c2,822$2,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.08366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No19c2,535$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.695742.1%24 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc392…511bbacked No13c2,250$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.49110%0 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked No29c1,956$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.794641.3%19 W · 27 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb401…df2abacked No23c1,923$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.84837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked No27c1,635$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.416354%34 W · 29 L+11.0wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+59.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes72c1,559$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.54942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1547…d066backed No19c1,500$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2833751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd348…7050backed No14c1,308$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55be…706fbacked No16c1,284$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-39.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No25c1,212$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.3814250%71 W · 71 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked No22c915.97$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.522740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6512…213bbacked Yes74c877.23$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.08425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-66.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x536f…ca28backed No11c832.94$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No9c830$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.23042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No6c806$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.224157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe020…ff13backed Yes73c802.49$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46a3…032ebacked No25c731.39$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.08560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes75c700.1$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.5347938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No11c682.17$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0819120.9%40 W · 151 L-20.8wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-57.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfdea…1c07backed No15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No9c646.53$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.992792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes79c642.29$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.882774.1%20 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xefde…65abbacked No17c637.53$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.31837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+90.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e2c…f0ecbacked No44c601.07$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77ab…3a5abacked Yes75c527$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes79c519.7$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.651154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6f…0e5fbacked Yes75c499.99$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes75c456.57$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.441136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No25c422.68$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6716418.9%31 W · 133 L-21.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-51.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No16c416.17$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1422019.5%43 W · 177 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce60…6705backed No26c398.34$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.574837.5%18 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32e0…c1d5backed No11c387.88$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6750%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No7c344.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.64790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes35c327.05$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.4236945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3237…5658backed No27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812055%11 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked No8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24330%0 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2fa…4a62backed No27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-56.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b95…a426backed No16c299.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf885…d719backed No19c265.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.35933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-39.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes74c249.09$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.8912839.8%51 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No25c241.09$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4545738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb289…9403backed No18c210.82$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No13c206.09$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7920731.9%66 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…05e9backed No11c199.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+36.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc327…31f5backed No20c189.12$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.094022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-37.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No15c187.25$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.312977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No10c164$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.761,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes61c158.89$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.022934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8187…3b8ebacked No13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d7…868bbacked Yes73c150.98$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18d2…a67dbacked Yes69c142.03$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34ea…3955backed Yes75c132.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2353…c73dbacked Yes74c132.32$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62c9…b59cbacked Yes76c130.61$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe393…8364backed Yes75c130.11$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.08250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x605c…19c1backed Yes76c130$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b07…9b67backed Yes76c129.47$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.41366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed Yes74c126$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed No23c125.95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.972425%6 W · 18 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-63.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x11d3…20c1backed No32c125.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed Yes76c121$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.04520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick62cpaid-73.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4122…5c11backed No34c120$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.21127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-63.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes79c115.38$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248150.6%41 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfa8…f80cbacked No26c115.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafb0…6621backed No19c114.71$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked Yes78c111$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.422347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0f5…8423backed No61c108.22$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x850e…5c8ebacked No13c107.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No17c106.54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.581388%11 W · 127 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No28c104$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1272935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xee21…3721backed No28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d8a…1f78backed No24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfb5…cf85backed No24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa18d…9b51backed Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+59.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64f9…cf15backed Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26f9…bb92backed No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1340%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x907c…23c1backed Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252650%13 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248955.1%49 W · 40 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.27per pick46cpaid+63%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2312533.6%42 W · 83 L-12.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-31.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6fee…ee86backed No25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217038.6%27 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae91…0f69backed No25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258076.3%61 W · 19 L+12.0wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+48.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed Yes73c99.99$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+304.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7f3…e279backed No30c99.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked No37c99.97$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.993540%14 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55c0…6c7bbacked No18c97.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182437.5%9 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+2,281.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x103d…b3b2backed No24c97.79$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb368…9734backed No23c97.18$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes74c82.09$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9425837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe976…35abbacked Yes59c81.75$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb12e…2408backed Yes79c79.18$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.