AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13724d46dee0fc8265728974072c068b83923129965c4c8f54c9b0e03b88d271
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd816…6c0fbacked No | 1c | 10,225$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked No | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 11c | 6,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e1…f649backed No | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,661$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7980…feadbacked No | 10c | 1,100$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc76…0ad0backed Yes | 71c | 632.2$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 78c | 565.27$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.05 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…c1d5backed No | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -10.6wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd35e…30a3backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked No | 8c | 240$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 12c | 209$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 14c | 118.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 16c | 76.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked No | 14c | 74.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…c395backed No | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 26c | 40.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026?this page
- Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.