Us Politics · resolved market
Trump declares another national emergency by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x476470074f6062901d48caee130241fdd3690f9ba88e95a81896febf158e08ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 2c | 3,704$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,678$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 2,396$1,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.89 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 16c | 1,311$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.45 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,285$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 53c | 1,260$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.34 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 48c | 1,187$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.13 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…48babacked Yes | 20c | 1,158$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.81 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 15cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…bfc5backed Yes | 46c | 1,122$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.44 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed No | 54c | 1,001$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.46 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 8c | 977.29$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.73 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 53c | 959.35$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.89 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcc…12a6backed No | 52c | 927.51$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…ac60backed Yes | 48c | 733.87$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 48c | 699.99$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 46c | 685$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.6 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 58c | 537.04$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.14 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 48c | 505$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.05 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…fec1backed No | 65c | 479.89$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c4…ac05backed Yes | 6c | 479.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 80c | 467$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked No | 49c | 446.83$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.88 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked Yes | 20c | 441$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…18d8backed Yes | 51c | 430$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 7c | 419.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 79c | 345$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.46 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 35c | 335.34$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.61 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb011…2d13backed No | 50c | 317.65$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 38c | 299.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 47c | 256.56$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 51c | 229.63$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.82 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 79c | 225$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 21c | 223$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…d82cbacked Yes | 7c | 214$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +124.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…4c44backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce9…24f0backed No | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 209.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 52c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4747…492dbacked Yes | 48c | 197.92$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked Yes | 21c | 197$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed No | 79c | 182$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 48c | 159.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…f315backed No | 80c | 146$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 47c | 144.86$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 26c | 141$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…7df0backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed Yes | 17c | 99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…9e90backed No | 52c | 91.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…b23abacked No | 69c | 86.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +305.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked No | 80c | 74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc069…7136backed No | 54c | 72.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fe…f6e7backed No | 67c | 68.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 17c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 65.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…78e9backed No | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…ab3dbacked Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed Yes | 24c | 58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 77c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 52c | 50.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb400…5604backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe86…5a99backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd6…fa4ebacked No | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c36…ff2dbacked No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…7f4fbacked Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e0…5b9ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…2ba7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc682…4d90backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227e…31b2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.