TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Bills (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Falconsof Bills, Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$207,894
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$210,409

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,894 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafba…e61bbacked Falcons55c37,972$20,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,091.8817454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Bills47c25,000$11,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,75013654.4%74 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bills45c22,500$10,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,12583147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Bills45c21,100$9,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,495.1514351%73 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Falcons54c18,857$10,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,674.4511145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bills45c18,817$8,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,559.251,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Bills47c15,807$7,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,356.273268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Falcons53c12,900$6,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,062.9620755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Falcons56c10,715$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,714.8611649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Falcons54c10,100$5,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,64618140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Falcons53c10,000$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,70017348%83 W · 90 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Falcons54c7,500$4,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,45014450%72 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Falcons54c7,308$3,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,356.6544652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1e…88d5backed Falcons53c6,566$3,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,081.375560%33 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Bills45c6,150$2,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,788.4828447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Falcons54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,30051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8191…8a35backed Bills46c4,650$2,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,138.85160.8%31 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Bills45c4,500$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,024.998845.5%40 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Bills46c4,314$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,989.711254.5%61 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Bills46c3,647$1,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,677.625048%24 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Bills46c3,520$1,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,619.3510650.9%54 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Falcons54c3,480$1,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,600.820661.2%126 W · 80 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b8c…abbabacked Falcons55c3,333$1,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5007153.5%38 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Falcons54c3,154$1,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,450.8412352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49d2…59f7backed Falcons55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Bills46c2,791$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.8622450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Falcons55c2,731$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.1514252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Falcons62c2,543$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.7841947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Bills48c2,205$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.6864747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9bc…73b7backed Bills46c2,173$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.582128.6%6 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-44.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Bills47c2,013$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.117143.7%31 W · 40 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…7be6backed Falcons50c1,960$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9801241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Falcons54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.9222349.8%111 W · 112 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Bills45c1,836$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8264761.7%29 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6d5…1ccbbacked Falcons55c1,813$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.853372.7%24 W · 9 L+6.0wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+29.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Bills39c1,400$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.4868446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Bills46c1,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50023447.9%112 W · 122 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ef5…325ebacked Bills47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47011154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Bills45c995.67$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.7731350.2%157 W · 156 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Falcons54c933.58$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.453661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Falcons55c909.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.098461.9%52 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Bills46c815.02$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.9120039.5%79 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Bills46c782.61$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3602152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Bills47c765.21$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.5741851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Falcons62c689.38$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.9613065.4%85 W · 45 L+17.2wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+37.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Falcons53c660.06$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.239245.7%42 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x147b…dceabacked Bills47c567.23$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.61421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-61%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed Bills46c560.86$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2586246.8%29 W · 33 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28c8…efcdbacked Falcons53c558.84$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Falcons51c555$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.9523647%111 W · 125 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x35de…b39abacked Bills46c545.65$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25120143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Bills49c508$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.921822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-62.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Bills47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23510940.4%44 W · 65 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Falcons54c474.37$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.1854451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed Bills45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x114a…8aa2backed Falcons55c436.36$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.368045%36 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…f8bebacked Falcons53c424.68$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20019459.3%115 W · 79 L+15.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Bills45c416.17$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.6383447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0891…508abacked Bills46c414.5$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.671250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Bills45c400$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18029356%164 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Falcons54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.3714344.1%63 W · 80 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0b8…9272backed Bills46c358.54$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.933250%16 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Bills48c327.85$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.3725956.8%147 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5681…e113backed Falcons53c325.81$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.131546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x864a…7cacbacked Bills47c325.81$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.1312850%64 W · 64 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Bills47c320.02$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4111237.5%42 W · 70 L-10.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-24.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Bills50c320$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.27526.7%20 W · 55 L-12.9wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-51.1%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Bills44c308.86$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.6341248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Falcons55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13514151.8%73 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ca…e8d0backed Falcons52c297$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.567131%22 W · 49 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-36%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bills45c272.82$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.5977052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b56…7ababacked Bills47c265.96$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1254060%24 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f55…bae8backed Bills47c265.96$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12516048.1%77 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Bills46c250$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11511142.3%47 W · 64 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x437b…0ba4backed Bills46c239.73$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.284757.4%27 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf48d…fe48backed Falcons54c230$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.814949%73 W · 76 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a25…c24dbacked Bills47c220$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.48143.2%35 W · 46 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Bills46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007751.9%40 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb338…606ebacked Bills46c217$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.824949%24 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b80…657fbacked Falcons54c216$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.3615746.5%73 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe478…28eabacked Bills47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7292…6bd3backed Bills47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005334%18 W · 35 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa581…2088backed Bills47c208.43$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Falcons51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9855345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf96…1056backed Bills45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x790f…a35bbacked Bills50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Falcons54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1928047.5%133 W · 147 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ef…f8c1backed Falcons55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x279b…04f5backed Falcons55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.821346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Bills47c170.21$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8017547.4%83 W · 92 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f84…7650backed Falcons55c163.64$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.645058%29 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2567…2371backed Bills46c152$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.921741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28a1…435cbacked Bills45c140$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633250%16 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7555…ce17backed Bills47c127.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x666d…a046backed Bills47c127.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf35…b327backed Bills49c122.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6016946.7%79 W · 90 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Bills47c114.89$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5424547.8%117 W · 128 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e27…0ee1backed Bills45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508647.7%41 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad5c…ac13backed Bills46c110$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.66036.7%22 W · 38 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-29.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3dda…a6e1backed Bills47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.