NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bills (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7aa11f478c8e0f335a12a7e27b010705f8292b926f1284ba9eb70010f3b790fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Falconsof Bills, Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $207,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $210,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Falcons | 55c | 37,972$20,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,091.88 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Bills | 47c | 25,000$11,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,750 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bills | 45c | 22,500$10,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,125 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Bills | 45c | 21,100$9,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,495.15 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Falcons | 54c | 18,857$10,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,674.45 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bills | 45c | 18,817$8,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,559.25 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Bills | 47c | 15,807$7,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,356.27 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Falcons | 53c | 12,900$6,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,062.96 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Falcons | 56c | 10,715$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,714.86 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…c9b4backed Falcons | 54c | 10,100$5,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,646 | 181 | 40.9%74 W · 107 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Falcons | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Falcons | 54c | 7,500$4,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,450 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Falcons | 54c | 7,308$3,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,356.65 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Falcons | 53c | 6,566$3,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,081.37 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Bills | 45c | 6,150$2,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,788.48 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Falcons | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Bills | 46c | 4,650$2,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,138.8 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Bills | 45c | 4,500$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,024.99 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Bills | 46c | 4,314$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.7 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Bills | 46c | 3,647$1,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,677.62 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Bills | 46c | 3,520$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.35 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Falcons | 54c | 3,480$1,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.8 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…abbabacked Falcons | 55c | 3,333$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Falcons | 54c | 3,154$1,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450.84 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d2…59f7backed Falcons | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Bills | 46c | 2,791$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,283.86 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Falcons | 55c | 2,731$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.15 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Falcons | 62c | 2,543$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.78 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Bills | 48c | 2,205$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.68 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bc…73b7backed Bills | 46c | 2,173$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.58 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Bills | 47c | 2,013$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.11 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7be6backed Falcons | 50c | 1,960$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Falcons | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.92 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Bills | 45c | 1,836$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…1ccbbacked Falcons | 55c | 1,813$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.85 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bills | 39c | 1,400$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.48 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Bills | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Bills | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Bills | 45c | 995.67$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.77 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Falcons | 54c | 933.58$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.45 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Falcons | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Bills | 46c | 815.02$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.91 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Bills | 46c | 782.61$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Bills | 47c | 765.21$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.57 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Falcons | 62c | 689.38$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.96 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Falcons | 53c | 660.06$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.23 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x147b…dceabacked Bills | 47c | 567.23$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -61%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Bills | 46c | 560.86$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…efcdbacked Falcons | 53c | 558.84$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Falcons | 51c | 555$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.95 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35de…b39abacked Bills | 46c | 545.65$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Bills | 49c | 508$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.92 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Bills | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Falcons | 54c | 474.37$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.18 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Bills | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…8aa2backed Falcons | 55c | 436.36$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.36 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Falcons | 53c | 424.68$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bills | 45c | 416.17$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.63 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…508abacked Bills | 46c | 414.5$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Bills | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Falcons | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b8…9272backed Bills | 46c | 358.54$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.93 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Bills | 48c | 327.85$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.37 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5681…e113backed Falcons | 53c | 325.81$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.13 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Bills | 47c | 325.81$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.13 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed Bills | 47c | 320.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.41 | 112 | 37.5%42 W · 70 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Bills | 50c | 320$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.2 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -12.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Bills | 44c | 308.86$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.63 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Falcons | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…e8d0backed Falcons | 52c | 297$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.56 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bills | 45c | 272.82$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.59 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b56…7ababacked Bills | 47c | 265.96$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Bills | 47c | 265.96$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Bills | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Bills | 46c | 239.73$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.28 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Falcons | 54c | 230$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…c24dbacked Bills | 47c | 220$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Bills | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…606ebacked Bills | 46c | 217$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Falcons | 54c | 216$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.36 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…28eabacked Bills | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Bills | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…2088backed Bills | 47c | 208.43$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Falcons | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf96…1056backed Bills | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x790f…a35bbacked Bills | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Falcons | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ef…f8c1backed Falcons | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…04f5backed Falcons | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Bills | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed Falcons | 55c | 163.64$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.64 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…2371backed Bills | 46c | 152$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…435cbacked Bills | 45c | 140$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Bills | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…a046backed Bills | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Bills | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Bills | 47c | 114.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…0ee1backed Bills | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…ac13backed Bills | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…a6e1backed Bills | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bills (-4.5)this page
- Bills vs. FalconsFalcons won
- Bills vs. Falcons: O/U 48.5Under won
- Bills vs. Falcons: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.