TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bills vs. Falcons: O/U 49.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$316,239
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$321,589

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $316,239 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1117…3532backed Over50c89,204$44,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,229.9231240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under51c70,750$35,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,011.2941851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Under50c62,566$31,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,473.3418156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfcc…441bbacked Over51c43,137$22,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,0003138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-29.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Under50c40,708$20,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,354.1519553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over50c38,694$19,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,343.011,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Over50c33,397$16,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,819.9947738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Over50c32,301$16,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,150.294143.9%18 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Under50c25,407$12,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,826.385855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Under49c16,958$8,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,648.8225956.8%147 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Under50c13,971$6,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,040.5612352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under50c11,000$5,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,55035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Under51c10,606$5,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,218.9731350.2%157 W · 156 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Over50c6,815$3,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,407.4625744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Over51c6,138$3,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,130.3844652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,55051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Over49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,449.9910552.4%55 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Over51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04034349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Over50c2,001$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.285442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Over50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00017144.4%76 W · 95 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Under52c1,942$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.6511744.4%52 W · 65 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Over40c1,824$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.1541947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Over50c1,545$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.0537350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over51c1,535$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.654451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under49c1,500$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76583147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Under50c1,375$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.495947.5%28 W · 31 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-7.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Over50c1,317$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.3483447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fef…5840backed Under60c1,181$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.252445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Under50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50026547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over44c858$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.7827644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71b3…a5d6backed Under49c800$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4053046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under51c800$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39226648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under51c784.31$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.313441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over24c748.9$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.0464747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Over50c665.3$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.4441248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0944…6771backed Over49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2947150.7%36 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Over51c588.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Under50c578$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28923447.9%112 W · 122 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Under50c432.99$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.9914344.1%63 W · 80 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Over51c422$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.2211946.2%55 W · 64 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8159…8d5cbacked Under50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2008043.8%35 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5fb…dcb0backed Under50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+36.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Over50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016351.5%84 W · 79 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Over51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2047751.9%40 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb8…76b4backed Over51c360$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.62259.1%13 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Under49c304$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.0430442.4%129 W · 175 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdb90…1917backed Under51c300$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1477048.6%34 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Over51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15322446.4%104 W · 120 L+11.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Under50c288$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14413843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Under51c204$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9613455.2%74 W · 60 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaff0…2e7fbacked Over51c203.92$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+41.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10055345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb6…25eabacked Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0ad2…71f8backed Over51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c41…42ebbacked Over57c197.67$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.673531.4%11 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+63.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over65c197.67$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4960049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over50c195$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2777052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5025…dd30backed Under43c186.05$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.052100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x279b…04f5backed Over50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over51c137.25$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7028047.5%133 W · 147 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d9b…3b7bbacked Under34c116$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+50.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc02…958abacked Over66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c1…012cbacked Under50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406753.7%36 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Under50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4017741.8%74 W · 103 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Under50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4019844.9%89 W · 109 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf8b…bff8backed Over53c75.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407065.7%46 W · 24 L+9.8wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+25.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x577d…160bbacked Under42c71.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+58.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3e…a9e5backed Under50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75b5…a1f2backed Under51c54.9$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.92944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbf9…48e2backed Over50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c5…bf7abacked Over51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.52462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.556852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Under50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2524243.4%105 W · 137 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb21a…0d4abacked Under50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+26.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Over51c49.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514537.2%54 W · 91 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Over52c40.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2124547.8%117 W · 128 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Over49c40.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6861148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019651.5%101 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Under70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1268446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc757…f18cbacked Under50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207157.7%41 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7794…8df9backed Under51c39.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.356936.2%25 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ff…f464backed Over51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2fe…73a4backed Over53c37.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204742.6%20 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Under50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158048.8%39 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c56…c18dbacked Under51c29.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.412751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e07…c0d4backed Under51c29.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.415261.5%32 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3237…6e2abacked Under51c28.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Over51c23.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1212141.3%50 W · 71 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Under50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108361.4%51 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc07…1c61backed Over51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3914…2103backed Over50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b0b…5ba9backed Under50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.