Us Politics · resolved market
Ghislaine Maxwell released from custody in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbacb4cac4e7ceecce559529eb0111f0db4e45cbcc739db3957acc885a8f82173
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 5c | 8,371$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.74 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f2…146ebacked Yes | 5c | 7,083$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.08 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 5c | 7,005$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.21 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 12c | 6,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…0899backed Yes | 7c | 5,949$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.13 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 10c | 4,293$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.87 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 6c | 3,835$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.08 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 3,520$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.33 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 2,763$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.14 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x826b…b549backed Yes | 14c | 2,143$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,821$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.9 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802e…e4a8backed Yes | 6c | 1,795$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 7c | 1,521$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 2c | 1,478$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 6c | 1,337$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 8c | 1,314$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.08 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 4c | 1,225$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.56 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.17 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 950$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 876.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 823.06$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 11c | 753$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 740.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…ae4fbacked Yes | 16c | 642.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…b5c7backed Yes | 4c | 560.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2d…1039backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c0…beb0backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…78babacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 14c | 428.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…d1ddbacked Yes | 3c | 369$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ff…fc39backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f1…8691backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 7c | 311.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…9a10backed Yes | 9c | 299.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec23…bfbabacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb4…02c6backed Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…d14bbacked Yes | 19c | 226.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd428…6368backed Yes | 17c | 226.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…8cadbacked Yes | 7c | 217.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe1…6c98backed Yes | 19c | 211.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd2…3f53backed Yes | 15c | 208.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…1ab3backed Yes | 12c | 205$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…7cccbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc05…632dbacked Yes | 6c | 183.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…13aabacked Yes | 12c | 170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.30per pick | 23cpaid | +211.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28cd…8454backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…5fc5backed Yes | 7c | 140$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…7febbacked Yes | 14c | 132.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736b…3b87backed Yes | 13c | 115.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fd…95aebacked Yes | 11c | 114$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf34e…6ec7backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95bc…b082backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…ec33backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7a…4880backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3c…b549backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 13c | 97.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 78.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15de…356cbacked Yes | 19c | 58.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 18c | 56.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.