Middle East · resolved market
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7e6f6627e8b73a8fa3a29949f6dc81f683f5ce102ae6b03347b862d09617f0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $752,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,306,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $752,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 10,014$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.38 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 2c | 5,150$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,545$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x675a…e128backed Yes | 2c | 3,541$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 1c | 3,442$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb43b…2a91backed Yes | 2c | 2,380$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2d…9375backed Yes | 1c | 2,100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,946$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafc1…2560backed Yes | 1c | 1,908$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,821$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.36 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,732$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,680$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4efabacked Yes | 2c | 1,503$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…b30dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,470$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,440$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…1f5dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,232$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,161$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,121$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,088$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 5c | 992.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0605…1593backed Yes | 4c | 887.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eef…bd6bbacked Yes | 1c | 874.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 8c | 804.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…d665backed Yes | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5250…4cfabacked Yes | 2c | 658.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…b32dbacked Yes | 2c | 634.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…9564backed Yes | 3c | 605.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 2c | 599.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…2f5cbacked Yes | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 3c | 482.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe870…96f7backed Yes | 3c | 434.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 3c | 340.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…7863backed Yes | 6c | 319.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +184.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.