Us Politics · resolved market
Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe02be708711f71fe7a0b84b877bbbe578a26939ee1ff19f4d7872a4e5ef19087
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,273$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.35 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 36c | 975.17$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.6 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 65c | 659.97$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.82 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed No | 68c | 549.43$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.41 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 17c | 320.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 35c | 301.09$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…1bc0backed Yes | 67c | 290$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36eb…c8c2backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…7a70backed Yes | 68c | 193.58$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 60c | 157.13$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.96 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 63c | 149.38$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9b…a0ecbacked Yes | 69c | 141.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 64c | 119.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 67c | 115$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 56c | 107.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 105$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.67 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 40c | 104.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 27c | 102.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +67%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 22c | 75.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 44c | 67.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 23c | 60.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Yes | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3191…c919backed Yes | 64c | 59.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057f…94a3backed Yes | 42c | 57.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 51c | 56.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…9e2bbacked No | 64c | 54.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +101%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…dc2dbacked Yes | 40c | 52.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 39c | 50.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 35c | 47.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed Yes | 68c | 44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 35c | 43.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.25per pick | 28cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 39c | 43.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…c61fbacked Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +134.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3217…7f16backed Yes | 38c | 39.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…78eabacked Yes | 44c | 38.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 36.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 29c | 35.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 67c | 34.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.35per pick | 62cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked Yes | 65c | 32.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 78c | 30.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x660e…b3c2backed Yes | 65c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…04f0backed No | 73c | 27.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x147b…2646backed No | 51c | 25.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…0f5bbacked Yes | 44c | 25.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fb…c25cbacked No | 56c | 24.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1245backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…3588backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…5c8bbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…c429backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4b…353abacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb333…e295backed No | 65c | 19.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.