Weather · resolved market
Earthquake 7.0 or above before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ab7a0673d49178b979772e935326b05616b20b996fcad3059be2b84652e2096
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1639…b984backed No | 46c | 5,065$2,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,346.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 54c | 5,020$2,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,310 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 9c | 3,333$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 62c | 1,395$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 71c | 757.12$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.77 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 33c | 695.93$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.83 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 74c | 671.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb05…12f8backed No | 29c | 547.57$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 24c | 334.4$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 31c | 307$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.37 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…ae0fbacked Yes | 58c | 177.44$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked No | 26c | 151.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…dac7backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 96.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 25c | 96.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a2…7c87backed Yes | 72c | 76.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 28c | 75.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 68c | 60.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 63c | 53.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 32c | 50.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked No | 33c | 47.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0802…8cb0backed Yes | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 44.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd62…2b7ebacked Yes | 67c | 29.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…ab71backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb090…14c7backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fee…ee86backed Yes | 56c | 18.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.