AI · resolved market
Will Grok still be #1 Free app next Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x621319f1f6f3a006726661c2e097c6e17530c35399569895de59d871027eaba5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 2,001$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.74 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 11c | 1,830$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf25…be9ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,636$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.97 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 72c | 927.93$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.63 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdad0…37b9backed Yes | 12c | 890$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 11c | 774.22$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.89 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf817…d678backed Yes | 8c | 768.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 12c | 594.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed No | 67c | 559.26$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.26 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 506.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 17c | 440.32$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 12c | 422$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ace…e38bbacked Yes | 16c | 333.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5771…fe1abacked Yes | 62c | 322.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 4c | 284.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 22c | 281.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fee…ee86backed Yes | 6c | 270.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 229.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 258 | 31.8%82 W · 176 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed Yes | 10c | 225$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 7c | 222$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf645…b8c2backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +266.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 21c | 195.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 11c | 150.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…dc6abacked Yes | 13c | 139$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 36c | 110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 71c | 93.73$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…e44fbacked Yes | 18c | 90.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd477…6c04backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 21c | 71.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 24c | 68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…533ebacked No | 73c | 54.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 78c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked Yes | 26c | 44.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d69…d6f1backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ae…3327backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…27debacked No | 66c | 28.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…322ebacked Yes | 44c | 25.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.