Music · resolved market
Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b003bd0a9bc184b74d12ad8475023444a7b826f1735ada593616281d8286b9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe223…752abacked Yes | 32c | 2,949$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…d4dbbacked Yes | 32c | 2,800$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce8…b692backed Yes | 32c | 2,800$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…10d0backed Yes | 32c | 2,100$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…7b10backed No | 67c | 2,000$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…4fddbacked Yes | 33c | 1,900$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…4ac3backed No | 68c | 1,499$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d4…3265backed No | 68c | 1,450$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf70…3222backed No | 68c | 1,450$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…c0bfbacked No | 68c | 1,420$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…9af9backed No | 68c | 1,380$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9760…f3b9backed No | 68c | 1,350$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2d…f5efbacked No | 68c | 1,100$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9821…c8acbacked No | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 890.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 53 | 3.8%2 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 58c | 663.26$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.88 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 11c | 573.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes | 26c | 532.64$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 69c | 471.92$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…decdbacked Yes | 11c | 449.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…50a4backed Yes | 8c | 430$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked No | 67c | 397.36$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 49c | 383$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 4c | 354.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 54c | 329.75$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 293.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 278.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 17c | 249.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c6…bf9bbacked Yes | 5c | 199.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 22c | 190.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed Yes | 39c | 160.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc6…c602backed No | 67c | 149.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed7…86b5backed Yes | 33c | 142.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…12edbacked Yes | 9c | 123.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4395…5b90backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d00…4adbbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 34c | 97.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 28c | 79.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0074…6019backed No | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…b89fbacked No | 64c | 65.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24cb…532abacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa2…0204backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad98…79e8backed Yes | 30c | 49.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a7c4backed No | 59c | 42.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…7737backed No | 58c | 39.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 46c | 38.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa394…8d06backed No | 69c | 38.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 72c | 35.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 32c | 35.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1,869.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 51c | 29.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 27.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x946b…6f57backed No | 63c | 18.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4578…c54abacked No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.