Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times November 8-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87bd430b9661d042f611be288458b872dce2be1665ed76e73a121d775afaf2cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 80c | 4,296$3,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.52 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 10c | 4,064$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,656.54 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff09…a205backed Yes | 8c | 2,035$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,868.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +169.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 3c | 1,937$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,876.89 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,670$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.78 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed Yes | 68c | 1,600$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.7 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…5eedbacked Yes | 8c | 1,500$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8183…51c6backed Yes | 20c | 1,415$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 68c | 1,260$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.21 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 3c | 1,107$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xce73…70a9backed Yes | 13c | 981.27$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.34 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…86aabacked Yes | 35c | 911.7$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.58 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…6704backed Yes | 8c | 886.35$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,188.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd288…0187backed Yes | 80c | 750.56$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.56 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes | 27c | 750$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…4310backed Yes | 16c | 678.46$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.98 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…d2cfbacked Yes | 38c | 643.2$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.05 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 47c | 641.69$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.12 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 38c | 622.97$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.49 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3001…d5c3backed Yes | 16c | 621.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +210.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0edf…edc6backed Yes | 9c | 599.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe640…c151backed Yes | 35c | 566.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 5c | 551.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.85 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +114.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x019b…e96cbacked Yes | 29c | 541.22$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed Yes | 27c | 530.92$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 19cpaid | +517.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…4fc9backed Yes | 51c | 459.68$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.59 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 19c | 440.42$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.54 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Yes | 19c | 426.08$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.07 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…53ddbacked Yes | 11c | 400$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +85%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 394.71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.59 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 4c | 386.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.49 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +277.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 68c | 386.06$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.65 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…2747backed No | 62c | 357.79$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 36c | 340$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.2 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f79…7342backed Yes | 7c | 335.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 40c | 331.55$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.92 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…7ba5backed Yes | 73c | 326.96$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.94 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 41c | 314$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.55 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 7c | 302.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.84 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…039dbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba43…ce4abacked Yes | 37c | 300$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b40…2cbdbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…3358backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…9f7ebacked Yes | 75c | 289.5$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…fcf0backed No | 19c | 288.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2407…1fccbacked Yes | 77c | 284.13$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 10c | 265.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.8 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…d083backed Yes | 37c | 264.85$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.85 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…1837backed Yes | 14c | 240.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.31 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…f6c4backed Yes | 61c | 238.66$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 9c | 232.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.22 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed No | 55c | 222.19$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.99 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b28…bf83backed Yes | 9c | 220$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 7c | 215.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.22 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed No | 35c | 209.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…7b57backed Yes | 12c | 201.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +325.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…95bdbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 36c | 193$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.71 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…f7a4backed Yes | 37c | 191.57$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce2…9920backed Yes | 8c | 188$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd3…b78dbacked Yes | 9c | 185.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 22cpaid | +403.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c13…8983backed Yes | 14c | 172.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.69 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.67 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 72c | 164.92$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…46b1backed Yes | 60c | 162.6$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed Yes | 8c | 161.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.75 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb41b…36bebacked No | 76c | 159.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.69 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 59c | 155$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e7…8ae4backed Yes | 39c | 128.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…2adfbacked Yes | 78c | 126$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 78c | 112.68$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d9…b534backed Yes | 14c | 107.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.91 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…d03cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3357…bbf8backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -65%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe08d…4534backed Yes | 58c | 92.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cd…517dbacked Yes | 24c | 92.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x621a…c615backed Yes | 62c | 87.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…0c5ebacked Yes | 14c | 86.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…53e4backed Yes | 31c | 81.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3348…dc9fbacked Yes | 80c | 75.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…e767backed Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd939…0484backed Yes | 16c | 72.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d45…b69fbacked Yes | 25c | 55.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 65c | 51.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bcfabacked Yes | 27c | 46.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +220.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd34…1b66backed Yes | 53c | 41.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…3e09backed No | 52c | 34.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f7b5backed Yes | 55c | 30.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbe…1276backed Yes | 66c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…f625backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8802…f468backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 78c | 18.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…91b2backed Yes | 78c | 15.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times November 8-15?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times November 8-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.