Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times November 8-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c58e031ae69188ea5c37fbe9ee65a7fbacf97bb0c7ed3ad4be5e1bea745d27e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 5c | 5,001$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.86 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 4c | 3,769$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.5 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,431$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba3…6055backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 2c | 1,604$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…53ddbacked Yes | 5c | 1,568$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +85%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 8c | 1,540$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.96 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 4c | 1,286$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 4c | 1,235$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,176$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 1,075$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 19c | 1,068$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 25c | 1,049$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.15 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 6c | 984.21$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…86aabacked Yes | 3c | 982.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8183…51c6backed Yes | 7c | 857.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cb…7838backed Yes | 2c | 840.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…e8fabacked Yes | 7c | 806.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f14…b199backed Yes | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19c…0e97backed Yes | 3c | 637.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 10c | 575.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 3c | 544.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +277.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 3c | 420$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf314…681ebacked Yes | 5c | 356.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…050fbacked Yes | 5c | 315.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5c…7560backed Yes | 4c | 315.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320a…64aabacked Yes | 4c | 314.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2e…182dbacked Yes | 5c | 299.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc0…0f84backed Yes | 19c | 272.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e9…2bc6backed Yes | 6c | 248.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d9…b534backed Yes | 5c | 228.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019b…e96cbacked Yes | 22c | 203.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 9c | 168.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…d083backed Yes | 34c | 145.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e4…b725backed Yes | 24c | 123.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd34…1b66backed Yes | 23c | 86.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…53e4backed No | 77c | 58.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c1…5d6fbacked Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…0c5ebacked Yes | 26c | 50.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times November 8-15?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times November 8-15?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times November 8-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.