Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times November 8-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7fa0a02191864093166a2fd4c27d75624432352e867c47877be31ba3d6d7899
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,201$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.21 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 11c | 2,528$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.96 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 3c | 1,880$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +277.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 6c | 1,674$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.84 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed Yes | 9c | 1,498$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.79 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 12c | 1,252$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.35 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,092$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…e2a0backed Yes | 16c | 1,089$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.23 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed1…07ddbacked Yes | 19c | 1,065$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63f3…b6c8backed Yes | 1c | 807.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 710.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 5c | 710.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 4c | 675$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 4c | 649.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 2c | 552.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0760…c72ebacked Yes | 4c | 515.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 3c | 501.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ba…97a1backed Yes | 6c | 411.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce2…9920backed Yes | 4c | 407$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 6c | 394.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…0669backed Yes | 3c | 386.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed9a…a87bbacked Yes | 11c | 350$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Yes | 10c | 311.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe640…c151backed Yes | 11c | 275.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3357…bbf8backed Yes | 16c | 273.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x990b…c30ebacked Yes | 14c | 271.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c4…fc89backed Yes | 9c | 261.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…a743backed Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6952…f84fbacked Yes | 8c | 230.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…f903backed Yes | 22c | 219.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…8709backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aed…9d25backed Yes | 7c | 192.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Yes | 14c | 188.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 10c | 145$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…fa1dbacked Yes | 21c | 119.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fa…9386backed Yes | 17c | 115.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 9c | 112.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 19c | 102.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7722…ee4bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 13c | 98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5311…e5f8backed Yes | 22c | 90.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31bc…7259backed Yes | 15c | 70.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times November 8-15?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times November 8-15?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times November 8-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.