Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times November 8-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c21d27f07e26690983b19163f252b3930cc74f09e6d56414742c99c401289b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb41b…36bebacked Yes | 0c | 18,999$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.28 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 3c | 2,954$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.05 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 11c | 2,133$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.62 | 658 | 23.3%153 W · 505 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc0…0f84backed Yes | 13c | 1,739$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 1,707$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.05 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 1,654$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 10c | 1,598$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.98 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,583$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.05 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed Yes | 9c | 1,578$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.24 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8e…7a0cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,510$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…24fcbacked Yes | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 8c | 1,127$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.04 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +277.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 2c | 1,113$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 852 | 16.4%140 W · 712 L | +24.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…5eedbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed1…07ddbacked Yes | 26c | 878.81$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 11c | 809.76$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…e2a0backed Yes | 13c | 797.5$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed Yes | 18c | 700$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 8c | 394.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed9a…a87bbacked Yes | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fa…df8abacked Yes | 7c | 312.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0760…c72ebacked Yes | 7c | 289.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…a743backed Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…e581backed Yes | 22c | 237.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…0669backed Yes | 8c | 230$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3357…bbf8backed Yes | 20c | 220.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c4…fc89backed Yes | 13c | 212.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…f634backed Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfce2…9920backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…9932backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Yes | 9c | 159.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…84e5backed Yes | 10c | 154.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aeb…76f9backed Yes | 8c | 146.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aed…9d25backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Yes | 22c | 141.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd288…0187backed Yes | 21c | 135.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 9c | 130.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…4310backed Yes | 16c | 120.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 20c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 13c | 114$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7722…ee4bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…3b89backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…ccbabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31bc…7259backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3348…dc9fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb0…64c0backed Yes | 14c | 98.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 12c | 98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e4…b725backed Yes | 23c | 64.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6d…0556backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 79c | 61.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa400…c4d3backed Yes | 21c | 53.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…f48fbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times November 8-15?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times November 8-15?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times November 8-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.