Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 8-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9026ea26ae8b987df23586f74b96926dc55fd9e18068439209dcb64fadc9fa51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 0c | 18,679$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +114.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 13c | 5,326$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.76 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 11c | 2,973$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.42 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,412$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.62 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff09…a205backed Yes | 11c | 1,938$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +169.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 1,831$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.79 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Yes | 27c | 1,328$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,164$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 12c | 1,131$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.92 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…5eedbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x174a…f2cebacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 8c | 989.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 11c | 950.24$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…4310backed Yes | 13c | 761.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 7c | 746.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 12c | 708.08$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 19c | 649.46$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.44 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 17c | 648.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 5c | 636.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…95bdbacked Yes | 28c | 632.33$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed Yes | 11c | 630$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 11c | 628.61$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba43…ce4abacked Yes | 10c | 618.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 14c | 579.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…2139backed Yes | 34c | 574.17$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41b…36bebacked Yes | 13c | 555$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…4fc9backed Yes | 18c | 554.26$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.16 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0edf…edc6backed Yes | 10c | 532$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked Yes | 3c | 519.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4229…9fe9backed Yes | 12c | 504.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…86aabacked Yes | 14c | 439.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce73…70a9backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Yes | 12c | 375.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019b…e96cbacked Yes | 28c | 362.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…5968backed Yes | 12c | 354.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 13c | 337.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320a…64aabacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b40…2cbdbacked Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…3358backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…1837backed Yes | 6c | 291.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…e767backed Yes | 10c | 286$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes | 12c | 252.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…039dbacked Yes | 11c | 248$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4092…cccabacked Yes | 14c | 247.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…8758backed Yes | 33c | 233.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 37c | 232.83$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 19c | 220.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b28…bf83backed Yes | 11c | 220$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 13c | 218.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +277.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 10c | 201.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…53ddbacked Yes | 14c | 191.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +85%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 24c | 190$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 15c | 182.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 14c | 182.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 7c | 180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…37e5backed Yes | 12c | 172.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 31c | 168.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c13…8983backed Yes | 24c | 168.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 13c | 166.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…e581backed Yes | 8c | 163.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777b…08b0backed Yes | 14c | 157.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 17c | 155.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 20c | 149.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31bc…7259backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d9…b534backed Yes | 26c | 116.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3357…bbf8backed Yes | 28c | 108.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 27c | 100.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -65%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…d03cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…0202backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba2f…d04bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…99c4backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fe…e618backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 12c | 96.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe08d…4534backed Yes | 28c | 95.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…5df8backed Yes | 13c | 89.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5311…e5f8backed Yes | 14c | 86.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…8105backed Yes | 12c | 83.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 20c | 78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d45…b69fbacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf314…681ebacked Yes | 20c | 68.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacd1…972abacked Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…c3fdbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…9932backed No | 80c | 41.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 33c | 32.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…f625backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…1194backed Yes | 37c | 27.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc103…bf4cbacked No | 70c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe139…fb93backed Yes | 57c | 19.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 8-15?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times November 8-15?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times November 8-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.