Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times November 8-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcfe6ee1a306a9d80ec15740fe6f9069394c1cc19a4f3fddbdbf417665d73e8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed Yes | 0c | 9,900$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acc…cde5backed Yes | 0c | 6,056$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 8c | 4,408$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.12 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,901$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.38 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba3…6055backed Yes | 5c | 2,700$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.9 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 5c | 2,035$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.39 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 17c | 1,549$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.51 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b5…a7dfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,114$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0edf…edc6backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 9c | 876.1$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.66 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 42c | 873.95$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.3 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd288…0187backed Yes | 55c | 810.88$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.3 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…86aabacked Yes | 5c | 804.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…a743backed Yes | 9c | 794.63$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…53ddbacked Yes | 7c | 752.47$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +85%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f79…7342backed Yes | 15c | 595.29$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…d2cfbacked Yes | 37c | 577.97$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.73 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf19c…0e97backed Yes | 7c | 557.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…4fc9backed Yes | 18c | 513.02$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.32 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 8c | 504.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019b…e96cbacked Yes | 25c | 405.8$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…9932backed Yes | 32c | 405.59$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 24c | 403.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5c…7560backed Yes | 17c | 403.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x174a…f2cebacked Yes | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 13c | 378.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +114.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 68c | 365.71$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…1837backed Yes | 5c | 337.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 5c | 310.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 7c | 306.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 62c | 300$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 14c | 300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…0225backed Yes | 5c | 284.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8183…51c6backed Yes | 8c | 279.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4092…cccabacked Yes | 19c | 269.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Yes | 19c | 267.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 7c | 265$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +277.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Yes | 31c | 254.94$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 15c | 250$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…050fbacked Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7935…2914backed Yes | 43c | 247.22$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…4310backed Yes | 16c | 242.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x029e…e4e8backed Yes | 8c | 239.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828d…2e40backed Yes | 32c | 221.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b28…bf83backed Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d9…b534backed Yes | 9c | 213.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 13c | 212.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e4…b725backed Yes | 28c | 211.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d45…b69fbacked Yes | 11c | 205$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…457abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…30d0backed Yes | 7c | 198.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed Yes | 30c | 196.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 19c | 192.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 8c | 182.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 14c | 176.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6db…5dd9backed Yes | 73c | 174.93$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…27e2backed Yes | 15c | 167.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed9a…a87bbacked Yes | 6c | 167.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70ad…daa9backed Yes | 30c | 147.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd34…1b66backed Yes | 37c | 147.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc90…4cb4backed Yes | 36c | 141.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba43…ce4abacked Yes | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…5688backed Yes | 23c | 126.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd939…0484backed Yes | 20c | 114.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb510…9c65backed Yes | 11c | 106.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cd…517dbacked Yes | 53c | 105.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…0c5ebacked Yes | 13c | 101.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf314…681ebacked Yes | 11c | 100.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 35c | 100.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 20c | 100.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -65%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 12c | 96.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1212…99e7backed Yes | 59c | 94.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…6a14backed Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…46b1backed Yes | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 40c | 63.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 60c | 62.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 25c | 53.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 19cpaid | +517.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c1…5d6fbacked Yes | 40c | 50.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5daa…aeefbacked Yes | 28c | 43.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…53e4backed Yes | 40c | 25.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times November 8-15?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times November 8-15?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times November 8-15?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times November 8-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.