NFL · resolved market
Will Kendrick Lamar perform a song not listed first?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1eea2beaff589a50f24c008d61a0ca28a5f4614cd82060dd10d4f865e547807e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4964…156cbacked Yes | 77c | 2,025$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b61…599cbacked Yes | 75c | 1,728$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 13c | 1,703$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.83 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…f55ebacked Yes | 69c | 919.64$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1738…5456backed No | 31c | 919.64$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d5…0121backed Yes | 69c | 853.89$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…75bebacked No | 31c | 853.89$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…ef04backed Yes | 6c | 806.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +415.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed No | 8c | 801.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa27a…6b26backed Yes | 9c | 631.07$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,031.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…de48backed Yes | 62c | 543.23$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…8dd3backed Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 9c | 467.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.65 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.43per pick | 45cpaid | +208.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 63c | 453.91$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.32 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked Yes | 58c | 386.36$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6d…5d26backed Yes | 34c | 370.17$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.79 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +5.3wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked No | 69c | 332.54$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 13c | 305.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +9.9wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +235.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…0336backed No | 51c | 301.58$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…b0fabacked Yes | 79c | 251.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 25c | 247.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.37 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…c789backed Yes | 13c | 231.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +125.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 58c | 221.01$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.58 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 33c | 220.05$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.59 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 37c | 197$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 195.22$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.27 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…36f4backed No | 54c | 186.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4b…4554backed No | 8c | 179.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +43%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…9b51backed Yes | 43c | 174.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c99…c499backed No | 38c | 171.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 35c | 157$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8700…e149backed Yes | 67c | 152.33$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 67c | 126.96$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 54c | 125$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5305…8de9backed Yes | 76c | 123.7$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2d…f033backed Yes | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f9…f17abacked Yes | 71c | 119.04$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 69c | 113.07$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 53c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f7…e1d3backed No | 47c | 106.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…28e5backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe659…4f92backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 161 | 39.1%63 W · 98 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…2f3ebacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…507cbacked Yes | 67c | 95.41$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 77c | 69.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb857…3897backed Yes | 72c | 69.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 65c | 69.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef7c…826fbacked No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e7…8592backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…af00backed No | 59c | 59.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…580cbacked No | 38c | 52.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bba…211fbacked Yes | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 63c | 47.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…cdb8backed No | 48c | 47.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e8…d8fabacked Yes | 59c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x120b…07c9backed No | 41c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03b8…bfd9backed Yes | 57c | 43.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 70c | 42.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +56%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…c77fbacked Yes | 62c | 38.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…9105backed No | 36c | 36.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 76c | 32.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4298…f07dbacked Yes | 66c | 30.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…848ebacked Yes | 35c | 28.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…b7a4backed Yes | 69c | 28.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…9b92backed Yes | 65c | 24.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…c3b1backed Yes | 65c | 21.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x90b1…4702backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c02…4727backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d7…5672backed Yes | 64c | 19.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 62c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b68…dce2backed Yes | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a81…30e8backed Yes | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform a song not listed first?this page
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "A.D.H.D" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "All The Stars" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Alright" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Bitch Don't Kill My Vibe" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Collard Greens" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "DNA" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Element" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Euphoria" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Hey Now" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Humble" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "King Kunta" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Money Trees" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "N95" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Not Like Us" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Squabble Up" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Swimming Pools" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "United In Grief" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "m.A.A.d. City" first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.