NFL · resolved market
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Humble" first?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1582a7005d409e90376c33a51f83c8c8ad0a3c7834417b482acd885087ae8893
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,488$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.52 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…9ac8backed Yes | 16c | 1,396$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 6c | 1,269$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd695…850ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,004$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 72c | 946.94$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.74 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 25c | 824.98$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.17 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ce…8d74backed Yes | 6c | 780.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…72c1backed Yes | 14c | 572.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.93 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4c…853ebacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed No | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 69c | 399.99$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 11c | 388.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…0336backed Yes | 5c | 340$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 73c | 331.09$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.12 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 12c | 299$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe77c…a67abacked Yes | 33c | 276.16$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…e408backed Yes | 14c | 271$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x855f…cfb0backed Yes | 27c | 224.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc87…9e25backed Yes | 18c | 222.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Yes | 37c | 208.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…c344backed Yes | 10c | 201.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 68c | 192.63$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 31c | 186.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 7c | 178.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 6c | 169$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…e60abacked Yes | 34c | 160$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e48…c23bbacked Yes | 19c | 157.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3c…9ea6backed Yes | 11c | 135.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde46…0036backed Yes | 12c | 130.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…ddaebacked Yes | 25c | 119.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8af…37e5backed Yes | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Yes | 33c | 110.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 28c | 109.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 13c | 109.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac39…2022backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 24c | 104.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…8974backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e0…f11cbacked Yes | 10c | 99.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63f9…0021backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +56%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 71c | 82.65$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…87e7backed Yes | 27c | 74.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d7…5672backed No | 67c | 67.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ede…4f0abacked No | 76c | 66.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…f1aabacked Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb707…d4a4backed Yes | 33c | 45.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8700…e149backed Yes | 33c | 41.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 68c | 37.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7090…0414backed Yes | 36c | 36.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…9964backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Humble" first?this page
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "A.D.H.D" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "All The Stars" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Alright" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Bitch Don't Kill My Vibe" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Collard Greens" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "DNA" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Element" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Euphoria" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Hey Now" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "King Kunta" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Money Trees" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "N95" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Not Like Us" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Squabble Up" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Swimming Pools" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "United In Grief" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "m.A.A.d. City" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform a song not listed first?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.