NFL · resolved market
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Squabble Up" first?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cc20269f9d51757b3bd15d4a4768e87cb94ea8aa93b11e8227019bc084a7c82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dd9…db8ebacked Yes | 42c | 9,024$3,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,751 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 78c | 4,693$3,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.9 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 8c | 1,950$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,791.91 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +9.9wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +235.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,743$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.03 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 21c | 1,522$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.15 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 74c | 1,252$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.86 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b1…e7edbacked Yes | 66c | 1,232$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d30…ba9ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,197$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,111$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.94 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…314bbacked Yes | 26c | 866.34$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 4c | 825.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 80c | 800$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 75c | 694$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.64 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 26c | 690.59$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa534…1280backed Yes | 32c | 609.48$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…4f16backed Yes | 19c | 551.25$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ede…4f0abacked No | 75c | 533.99$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.42 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c99…c499backed Yes | 39c | 515.3$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e4…c598backed Yes | 30c | 507.04$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…8e6fbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f63…4fddbacked Yes | 21c | 480.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…7f5fbacked Yes | 37c | 477.79$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6000…5132backed Yes | 37c | 477.45$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed No | 70c | 460.08$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…c844backed Yes | 23c | 438.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…ed8cbacked Yes | 21c | 422.1$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b33…7fd4backed Yes | 20c | 395.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70e8…d94abacked Yes | 26c | 385.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7301…9e76backed Yes | 75c | 376.76$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 15c | 364.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4b…4554backed No | 27c | 329.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +43%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 11c | 327.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 75c | 318$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 22c | 304.71$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.34 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 285.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 66c | 279.34$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.61 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 76c | 279.11$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8333…eb93backed No | 76c | 243$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…0336backed Yes | 24c | 217.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffce…454dbacked Yes | 34c | 210$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dad…ec00backed Yes | 25c | 194.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked Yes | 20c | 189.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 23c | 187.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…36f4backed Yes | 54c | 186.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 22c | 180$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd6…5d54backed Yes | 25c | 178.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 20c | 144.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb52…55ecbacked Yes | 15c | 136$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…848ebacked Yes | 21c | 134.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc0…9bacbacked Yes | 30c | 126.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3c…9ea6backed Yes | 14c | 125.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…9105backed No | 79c | 122.46$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8af…37e5backed Yes | 17c | 116.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc87…9e25backed Yes | 51c | 116.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe61e…52cfbacked Yes | 67c | 115.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6d…5d26backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +5.3wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 79c | 97.26$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 145 | 50.3%73 W · 72 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 29c | 90.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…7fffbacked Yes | 12c | 87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…5080backed Yes | 25c | 83.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 75.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89a2…6c31backed Yes | 17c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…309abacked Yes | 71c | 70.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed2…2b88backed Yes | 29c | 67.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked No | 79c | 55.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf006…b003backed Yes | 29c | 51.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…1ddabacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…f1aabacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…b5c7backed Yes | 24c | 44.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2732…3085backed No | 80c | 36.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0390…4ce9backed Yes | 50c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 75c | 23.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked No | 76c | 23.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Squabble Up" first?this page
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "A.D.H.D" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "All The Stars" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Alright" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Bitch Don't Kill My Vibe" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Collard Greens" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "DNA" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Element" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Euphoria" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Hey Now" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Humble" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "King Kunta" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Money Trees" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "N95" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Not Like Us" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Swimming Pools" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "United In Grief" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "m.A.A.d. City" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform a song not listed first?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.