NFL · resolved market
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Not Like Us" first?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe49be0b8cb08c4cc243054d7722aaf6f8dda9fe2433680b5fdc80d0d200b8f32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,445$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 880.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Yes | 4c | 866.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…184cbacked Yes | 11c | 839$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 9c | 664.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x923a…343ebacked Yes | 9c | 540.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadeb…1816backed Yes | 4c | 497.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 10c | 441$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb570…811fbacked Yes | 25c | 308.58$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f55…c166backed Yes | 4c | 269.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a61…2f2cbacked Yes | 22c | 231.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855f…cfb0backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c1…5c40backed Yes | 12c | 196.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca1…406ebacked Yes | 10c | 192.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 12c | 167.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7090…0414backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6df…ae66backed Yes | 43c | 115.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…1d13backed Yes | 10c | 101.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe77c…a67abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb096…5638backed Yes | 26c | 97.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9601…9b14backed Yes | 19c | 84.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd8…2932backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…503bbacked Yes | 28c | 35.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 70c | 18.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Not Like Us" first?this page
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "A.D.H.D" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "All The Stars" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Alright" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Bitch Don't Kill My Vibe" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Collard Greens" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "DNA" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Element" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Euphoria" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Hey Now" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Humble" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "King Kunta" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Money Trees" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "N95" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Squabble Up" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Swimming Pools" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "United In Grief" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "m.A.A.d. City" first?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform a song not listed first?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.