Chess · resolved market
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6972c70dcc013803ddffa4205845bb165f58e65145e7e9aeffbb1c07720726a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $171,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfda…bedebacked Yes | 10c | 50,430$4,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,463.3 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 10c | 7,221$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,515.92 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed Yes | 12c | 5,733$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,072.68 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7a7dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,262$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,067.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +277.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d12…007fbacked Yes | 10c | 4,929$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,422.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…d12fbacked Yes | 11c | 4,545$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,044.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +434.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 3c | 3,409$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,315.69 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 3c | 3,050$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,964 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +222.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…1a0dbacked Yes | 21c | 3,024$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,394.34 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed Yes | 5c | 2,622$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,479.79 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 9c | 2,576$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,335.81 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41a1…75bcbacked Yes | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…0caabacked Yes | 6c | 2,100$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,983 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +178.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb680…c893backed Yes | 6c | 2,088$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,967.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +204.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked Yes | 14c | 2,000$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,721.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +192.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 5c | 1,860$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.68 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +5,582.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e80…9eadbacked Yes | 10c | 1,596$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.19 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x230b…616abacked Yes | 2c | 1,380$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +5,014.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0b…97dabacked Yes | 2c | 1,020$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +2,071.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c64…dc0fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…a51cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 4c | 891.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.33 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 11c | 803.18$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +175.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ac…a261backed Yes | 12c | 800$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcafe…6f1abacked Yes | 14c | 715.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +379.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf68…c35fbacked Yes | 4c | 550.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,654.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 20c | 503.35$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.45 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 3c | 500.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.64 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f57…242ebacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b4afbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…782fbacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +666.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e67…d472backed Yes | 4c | 481.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +387.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cce…cc16backed Yes | 5c | 475$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,965.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6597…53b3backed Yes | 12c | 437.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +53%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…012bbacked Yes | 12c | 423.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.55 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf033…9ea3backed Yes | 5c | 409.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +284.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…9799backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +210.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +341.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 8c | 375.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes | 3c | 373.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.14 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4d…caa6backed Yes | 11c | 354.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.55 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91a3…e977backed Yes | 3c | 320$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +949.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4707…7e5bbacked Yes | 5c | 305.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +205.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…6842backed Yes | 4c | 290.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,485.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x176b…b9e7backed Yes | 10c | 272.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +464.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 11c | 270$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd1…43c2backed Yes | 11c | 258.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…8d61backed Yes | 12c | 239.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.71 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…53ddbacked Yes | 14c | 219.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…14cebacked Yes | 11c | 210.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.58 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3058…5412backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19c3…0bdbbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +407.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…d389backed Yes | 16c | 191.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c74…7a8dbacked Yes | 10c | 185.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +348.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x427b…eb4bbacked Yes | 11c | 182$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 6c | 180$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 20cpaid | +568.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d5…c991backed Yes | 23c | 171.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29fd…de15backed Yes | 13c | 170$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 12c | 168.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.35 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd169…fe52backed Yes | 18c | 166.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +454.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c0…ecc6backed Yes | 11c | 165.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +205.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…6130backed Yes | 11c | 162$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +195.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 15c | 149.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 15cpaid | +237.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4b…6916backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…51d7backed Yes | 9c | 118.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646d…d31fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…e531backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 30c | 69.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +168%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 64c | 68.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bb…39f3backed No | 79c | 63.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…a285backed Yes | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…fffbbacked Yes | 59c | 19.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship?this page
- Will Ding Liren win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship?No won
- Will Game 14 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.