TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Ding Liren win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$179,270
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$149,958

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,270 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes1c53,064$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x698a…99acbacked Yes1c14,297$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes1c9,109$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.042711.1%3 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+84.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f02…a51cbacked Yes1c8,600$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+150%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes7c7,235$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1802…a3afbacked Yes1c6,500$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes4c5,434$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.37119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+222.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes17c5,000$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-61.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d12…007fbacked Yes28c4,606$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.23520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+94.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41a1…75bcbacked No75c3,597$2,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.361154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+63.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xabfe…79d3backed Yes30c3,340$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes17c3,131$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.34333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes23c3,103$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.784639.1%18 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes19c2,516$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49080%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c91…5fdabacked Yes21c2,439$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec75…8786backed Yes18c1,911$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3525324.5%13 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a61…eb03backed Yes7c1,650$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.54223.8%10 W · 32 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb680…c893backed Yes28c1,500$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+204.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6597…53b3backed No80c1,439$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.73944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+53%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes18c1,166$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.873435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f81…0caabacked Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+178.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe471…8e64backed Yes19c706.58$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes13c625$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.911011.8%13 W · 97 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x19c3…0bdbbacked Yes16c603.45$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981040%4 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+407.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes18c545.01$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.341421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick41cpaid-1.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d5b…334abacked Yes18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-59.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2889…fc69backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c64…dc0fbacked No61c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1951827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902313%3 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ff…761dbacked Yes20c490.55$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13f4…1c68backed Yes7c487.16$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6183…af63backed Yes19c433.37$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.34450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x427b…eb4bbacked Yes17c411$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.99633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+113.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…4805backed Yes20c400.9$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc018…018abacked Yes19c400$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes3c385.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid+104.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf136…60adbacked Yes6c376.77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f57…242ebacked Yes28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001625%4 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+123.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08e6…94b4backed Yes30c353.83$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.94520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-74.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43a4…14cebacked Yes19c337.63$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+67.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes18c300$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd88e…e6c1backed Yes18c283.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.921216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-74.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4125…b55dbacked Yes4c282.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12580%4 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.43per pick37cpaid+132%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa40e…53ddbacked Yes18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+79.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23b7…b222backed Yes17c276.84$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.061450%7 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4707…7e5bbacked Yes20c271.66$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.24714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+205.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7414…8e95backed Yes11c259.9$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.393116.1%5 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97a2…9a47backed Yes19c236.37$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No80c232$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.448732.2%28 W · 59 L-10.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb5bb…39f3backed Yes18c228.31$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-67.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xffde…e531backed Yes17c223$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.91333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+233.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf0…0245backed Yes20c221$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick24cpaid+284.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbed…aa02backed Yes19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes24c200$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid+341.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c0…ecc6backed Yes21c177.23$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+205.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45cf…d389backed Yes20c150$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76eb…525abacked Yes22c148.04$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…2858backed Yes18c140$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.21546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick31cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe234…a285backed Yes12c121.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+67.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbd0…8d61backed Yes17c119.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.31118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3914…51d7backed Yes19c109.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid+123.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9264…bca3backed Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee1…b696backed Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20767.9%6 W · 70 L-12.3wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-66.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.91741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+120.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49b8…762dbacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29fd…de15backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.31330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick18cpaid+31.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ecb…2afdbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb720…c2fbbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe956…7430backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+77.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4166…3236backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid+21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd767…50bebacked Yes18c94.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x609c…2b38backed Yes20c89.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ae1…286ebacked Yes18c85.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+296.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40aa…d651backed Yes20c83.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12b8…0710backed Yes24c82.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03fb…38a5backed Yes19c80$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes24c76.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.281711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a39…04abbacked Yes20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd3…263fbacked Yes16c65.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2140%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c4b…6916backed Yes20c53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0bd…9cd2backed Yes23c50.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick20cpaid+568.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfda…bedebacked No77c43.4$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.981770.6%12 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+148.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7c74…7a8dbacked Yes33c33.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick24cpaid+348.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c25.11$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.752740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.