TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump negative approval before April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$458,465
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$474,510

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $458,465 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c00…003abacked No47c130,000$61,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,10040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4634…9222backed Yes53c130,000$68,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No4c19,300$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.3612910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No1c11,900$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.22847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed No1c8,632$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.64814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No5c7,899$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.113859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked No10c3,561$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.026728.4%19 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes56c3,492$1,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.75916.9%10 W · 49 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No8c3,451$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.7211940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dcd…2edcbacked No7c3,332$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No47c3,144$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,464.287133.8%24 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed No9c3,040$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.168615.1%13 W · 73 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-39.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x850d…aae1backed Yes62c2,670$1,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.14560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf501…8852backed No50c2,647$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,318.181323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-68.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes70c2,303$1,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.7819436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed No44c2,175$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.347432.4%24 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No3c1,559$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476053.3%32 W · 28 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes44c1,509$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.1511848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfb27…4db3backed No7c1,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1053920.5%8 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x814a…25adbacked Yes65c1,480$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.322142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No4c1,402$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2921935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes65c1,108$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.655343.4%23 W · 30 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No5c1,066$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1615646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf9e…e286backed No19c1,020$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.181225%3 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-66.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No37c1,003$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.0737533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x063b…0711backed Yes64c999.98$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes53c998.63$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.5914742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc45…e0eabacked No11c947.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6c0…d6dcbacked No46c871.97$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c12…2b11backed No16c853.56$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.011050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5da5…79eebacked Yes60c826.9$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.15966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+63.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60fd…1d52backed Yes69c818.87$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.452227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed Yes56c811.58$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.814650%23 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90a8…0261backed No39c809.4$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.11747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No24c769.27$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.2399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed No16c760.62$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.479549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes56c755.9$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.62941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fd…658cbacked No45c663.03$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004332.6%14 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xded0…4319backed No6c652.95$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3840%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed Yes54c650$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2999958.6%58 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29411031.8%35 W · 75 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes42c580.88$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.843860.5%23 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd66c…97e3backed No4c569.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.795726.3%15 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+34.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked No38c569.02$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.84434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c567.76$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.671,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec2…0cb3backed No36c566.01$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.761435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No4c545.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6914940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11f3…d859backed No7c499.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed No12c488.57$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602536%9 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-44.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No10c446.26$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9296319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No22c440.46$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0923543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7885…eeaebacked Yes69c435.1$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.431752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes45c420.75$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.929248.9%45 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No34c400.4$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1456733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes33c392.73$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.398847.7%42 W · 46 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No56c380$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.52744.4%12 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+143.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6dd1…7be2backed No9c345$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+20%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No8c311.19$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1511918.5%22 W · 97 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No48c304.46$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.995451.9%28 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xffdb…411dbacked No48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1443161.3%19 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes60c300$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1214042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4440…5f67backed No34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.74431.8%14 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14413525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes45c299.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16537844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf007…10b4backed No42c284.16$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.344346.5%20 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No10c281.56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8217713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4099…b4ebbacked No59c251.73$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98cb…aa35backed No6c240.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.683438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42a2…2e5fbacked No43c223.54$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.44520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ed6…58b9backed No47c221.29$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1034774.5%35 W · 12 L+7.4wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+28.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed No7c220$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.116346%29 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked No7c206.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1415243.4%66 W · 86 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed No16c196.74$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.13742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+269%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa095…dcafbacked Yes43c195.28$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf488…532ebacked Yes66c194.01$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.11425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-62.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed No9c193$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.53724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x095f…41b7backed No8c180$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.322420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick26cpaid+23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b92…046ebacked No45c175$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.75560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88fe…3168backed No58c171.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x612f…aa53backed Yes42c165$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.251546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes54c162.14$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.142343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d0…4e7dbacked No50c160$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805742.1%24 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd737…71bbbacked No43c149.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.54254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed No55c148$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.46625.8%17 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c23…b6a1backed No11c146.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-81%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5152…79a0backed No35c145.71$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-53.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e27…0ee1backed Yes69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b7…d63cbacked No35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed No36c139.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.797119.7%14 W · 57 L-8.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x74b5…e2ffbacked No38c139.37$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.43151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes50c137$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.52846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3762…7ff4backed No58c124.83$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721936.8%7 W · 12 L-5.2wins-0.28per pick64cpaid-44.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No36c116.79$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7137740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25f8…3428backed No62c112.44$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3340%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No19c109.43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.111,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbdb1…4253backed Yes61c102.22$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5290…487dbacked No49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked No43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436357.1%36 W · 27 L+8.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+59.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8304…f086backed Yes67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335358.5%31 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb014…1f4dbacked Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-53.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.