Us Politics · resolved market
Trump negative approval before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8268d76697b4e304951419a549f96007e3b0027c7f1ef27357983389b8fb32b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $458,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $474,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $458,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c00…003abacked No | 47c | 130,000$61,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…9222backed Yes | 53c | 130,000$68,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61,100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 4c | 19,300$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.36 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 11,900$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.2 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed No | 1c | 8,632$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 5c | 7,899$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.11 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 10c | 3,561$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.02 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 56c | 3,492$1,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537.7 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 8c | 3,451$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.72 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcd…2edcbacked No | 7c | 3,332$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 47c | 3,144$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.28 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 9c | 3,040$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.16 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x850d…aae1backed Yes | 62c | 2,670$1,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf501…8852backed No | 50c | 2,647$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 70c | 2,303$1,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.78 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed No | 44c | 2,175$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.34 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 3c | 1,559$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 44c | 1,509$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.15 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed No | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 65c | 1,480$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.32 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 4c | 1,402$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 65c | 1,108$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.65 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 5c | 1,066$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…e286backed No | 19c | 1,020$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 37c | 1,003$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.07 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…0711backed Yes | 64c | 999.98$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 53c | 998.63$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.59 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc45…e0eabacked No | 11c | 947.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c0…d6dcbacked No | 46c | 871.97$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c12…2b11backed No | 16c | 853.56$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da5…79eebacked Yes | 60c | 826.9$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 69c | 818.87$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.45 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 56c | 811.58$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.81 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a8…0261backed No | 39c | 809.4$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.1 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 24c | 769.27$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.23 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed No | 16c | 760.62$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.47 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 56c | 755.9$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.6 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked No | 45c | 663.03$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded0…4319backed No | 6c | 652.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 54c | 650$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 42c | 580.88$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.84 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 4c | 569.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 38c | 569.02$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.8 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 567.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec2…0cb3backed No | 36c | 566.01$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.76 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 4c | 545.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed No | 7c | 499.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 12c | 488.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 446.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 22c | 440.46$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…eeaebacked Yes | 69c | 435.1$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.43 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 45c | 420.75$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.92 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 34c | 400.4$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.14 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 33c | 392.73$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.39 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 56c | 380$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd1…7be2backed No | 9c | 345$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 8c | 311.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 48c | 304.46$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.99 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffdb…411dbacked No | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 60c | 300$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed No | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.7 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 45c | 299.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 42c | 284.16$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.34 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 10c | 281.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4099…b4ebbacked No | 59c | 251.73$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed No | 6c | 240.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked No | 43c | 223.54$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed No | 47c | 221.29$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +7.4wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed No | 7c | 220$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 7c | 206.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed No | 16c | 196.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +269%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…dcafbacked Yes | 43c | 195.28$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…532ebacked Yes | 66c | 194.01$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed No | 9c | 193$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed No | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…046ebacked No | 45c | 175$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fe…3168backed No | 58c | 171.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 42c | 165$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes | 54c | 162.14$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked No | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…71bbbacked No | 43c | 149.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed No | 55c | 148$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c23…b6a1backed No | 11c | 146.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5152…79a0backed No | 35c | 145.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…0ee1backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b7…d63cbacked No | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed No | 36c | 139.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74b5…e2ffbacked No | 38c | 139.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes | 50c | 137$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 58c | 124.83$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -5.2wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 36c | 116.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f8…3428backed No | 62c | 112.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 19c | 109.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…4253backed Yes | 61c | 102.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5290…487dbacked No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb014…1f4dbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.