Music · resolved market
Will 'Not Like Us' win Song of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c823d6f91fdb32faf7f84c9e4ca824e4a53e2e56aed8dd2fc3460f887fc3eaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 12c | 2,386$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,101.05 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d04…8859backed Yes | 12c | 1,800$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 14c | 1,794$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.84 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 28c | 1,697$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 40c | 1,519$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 12c | 1,418$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.43 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 77c | 1,023$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.78 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…a2a7backed Yes | 13c | 1,012$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5a…563dbacked Yes | 20c | 930.41$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 70c | 803.86$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.91 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 15c | 614.57$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.26 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 548.45$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.02 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1936…8ae0backed Yes | 19c | 519.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +419.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe04f…8820backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 12c | 499.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed Yes | 14c | 487.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +171.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 13c | 472.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.88 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad85…78fcbacked Yes | 14c | 446.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.53per pick | 27cpaid | +269.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed No | 3c | 444$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Yes | 29c | 430.34$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 12c | 400$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 13c | 300.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.01 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 15c | 280$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2625…b2f8backed Yes | 20c | 275$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +453.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 12c | 259.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.83 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 19c | 253.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.74 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…4253backed Yes | 14c | 248.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +127%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 223.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.07 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed Yes | 14c | 220$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a3…0bc1backed Yes | 23c | 219.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +122%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 16c | 205.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.2 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 15c | 198.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.76 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +104%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…ace9backed Yes | 12c | 177.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.82 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +248.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 11c | 166$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.4 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 14c | 152$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 18c | 150.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 16c | 150$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 18c | 134.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.36 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes | 15c | 124$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.4 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…dfb9backed Yes | 16c | 124$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 77c | 114.78$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 16c | 111.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.86 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…2529backed Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +255.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 13c | 109$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90eb…57d1backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855a…6f7bbacked Yes | 34c | 104.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +145.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d00…4adbbacked Yes | 15c | 103.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac3…7130backed Yes | 15c | 101.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +380.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d1…3ef3backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ecb…8213backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdd…b038backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…3e1bbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 26c | 95.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…bf2cbacked Yes | 28c | 94.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +253.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 13c | 92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…a960backed No | 71c | 89.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 14c | 74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3c…4e8bbacked Yes | 22c | 72.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…3373backed Yes | 15c | 70.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +589.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…d717backed Yes | 26c | 57.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1d…f96dbacked Yes | 21c | 55.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…c0f2backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…68b5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 34c | 44.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +167.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 72c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67ca…f918backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed No | 75c | 30.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed No | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed No | 80c | 15.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Not Like Us' win Song of the Year?this page
- Will 'A Bar Song (Tipsy)' win Song of the Year?No won
- Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Song of the Year?No won
- Will 'Die With A Smile' win Song of the Year?No won
- Will 'Fortnight' win Song of the Year?No won
- Will 'Good Luck, Babe!' win Song of the Year?No won
- Will 'Please Please Please' win Song of the Year?No won
- Will 'TEXAS HOLD 'EM' win Song of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.