Music · resolved market
Will 'Good Luck, Babe!' win Song of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b474892143dc8423ca6222368f29ecbbdd1003833cf46d332ed0f480e326111
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Yes | 7c | 11,523$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e09…e03abacked Yes | 8c | 1,290$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 6c | 1,111$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0916…8fdbbacked Yes | 8c | 986.64$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 7c | 981.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f5…d022backed Yes | 4c | 973.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 7c | 831$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4e…a18ebacked Yes | 9c | 758.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 3c | 687.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 5c | 500.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 487.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 440.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…5680backed Yes | 8c | 375.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…126cbacked Yes | 8c | 263.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 6c | 253.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 6c | 241$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef8…1116backed Yes | 6c | 227.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 6c | 199.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 193.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2b…0c88backed Yes | 6c | 190$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ac…c395backed Yes | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d1…3ef3backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b651backed Yes | 7c | 139.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…7bb7backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe40…e393backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…74fdbacked Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…d288backed No | 77c | 82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Good Luck, Babe!' win Song of the Year?this page
- Will 'A Bar Song (Tipsy)' win Song of the Year?No won
- Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Song of the Year?No won
- Will 'Die With A Smile' win Song of the Year?No won
- Will 'Fortnight' win Song of the Year?No won
- Will 'Not Like Us' win Song of the Year?Yes won
- Will 'Please Please Please' win Song of the Year?No won
- Will 'TEXAS HOLD 'EM' win Song of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.