TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will 'Fortnight' win Song of the Year?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,160
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,103

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,160 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x24c5…923dbacked Yes5c4,953$251 inLost-$251.35229.1%2 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-62.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3979…f49ebacked Yes2c2,989$45 inLost-$44.8320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab67…af47backed Yes2c2,100$48 inLost-$48.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f7…8815backed Yes3c2,000$68 inLost-$6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3171…5be3backed Yes3c2,000$68 inLost-$6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x729d…52d3backed Yes3c2,000$68 inLost-$6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes2c2,000$46 inLost-$4614835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1528…4bd6backed Yes3c2,000$68 inLost-$6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes2c1,319$26 inLost-$26.441315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-59.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes2c1,136$22 inLost-$22.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c1,118$23 inLost-$22.5424732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes6c862.76$50 inLost-$49.521931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ec5…3117backed Yes4c856$30 inLost-$29.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes3c800$20 inLost-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa69f…6874backed Yes2c770.94$13 inLost-$13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6426…bb53backed Yes4c681.88$25 inLost-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes3c600.9$19 inLost-$18.714615.2%7 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-43.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94b4…d32ebacked Yes4c550.59$20 inLost-$20137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20c6…e38abacked Yes3c427.1$11 inLost-$1170%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x772a…c9f3backed Yes4c377.63$14 inLost-$14.3440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdb1…4253backed Yes4c300.3$11 inLost-$10.51650%3 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+127%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes5c300$14 inLost-$14.12213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+101.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes5c241.8$13 inLost-$12.582416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90e9…de83backed Yes50c20$10 inLost-$101241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x197a…4932backed No50c20$10 inWon+$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.